Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe is fighting for his political life in a behind-the-scenes power struggle within his own party that could oust him faster than street battles with a reinvigorated and determined political opposition.
While hard-line elements of Mugabe’s secret police and militant youth militia step up a brutal and bloody crackdown on government opponents, analysts said rival factions within the ruling Zanu-PF party are plotting to force the president to step down at the end of his term next year.
A key test could come as early as next week at a meeting of the ruling party’s central committee, when a faction could seek to block the president from running for another term next year.
University of Zimbabwe political analyst John Makumbe said rival factions supporting former parliamentary speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa or Vice-President Joyce Muguru, whose husband is a powerful ex-army commander, are confident they can prevent another Mugabe term.
”That is where the real trouble for Mugabe is. Both factions of Zanu-PF don’t want him to continue. They are united on that, but they are not united on who to replace him with. That is when they take out their machetes and start cutting each other’s back,” Makumbe said in a telephone interview from Harare.
”For Mugabe, the end is in sight. For him to believe otherwise is naive,” added Makumbe.
Zanu-PF in ‘disarray’
Christopher Dell, the United States ambassador to Zimbabwe, told the Associated Press that the ruling party is in disarray, that tremendous pressures are building within the party because of the succession battle and that growing numbers within the party want Mugabe to step down.
”Mugabe is a very resourceful fellow. One has to give him certain grudging admiration for his political skills; I mean, he’s managed to stay in power for 27 years — that’s no mean feat,” said Dell.
”He is far from giving up. That he has made very evident,” Dell added. ”He’s not prepared to go down without a fight, but he is weaker than he’s ever been before, because the economy has simply made him weaker and because everyone recognises that he’s 83 years old.”
Mugabe complained in an interview broadcast on his state television last month that top officials were jockeying to succeed him. But, he announced: ”There are no vacancies because I am still there.”
Dell said there are several possible scenarios in Zimbabwe, ”from the president unilaterally declaring a state of emergency and seizing power — dropping the facade of democracy — to somebody moving against him [or] him being forced to stand down by his own party.”
Economic meltdown
Disaffection with Mugabe within the ruling party, the military and security forces stems from the country’s economic meltdown, said Dell. Annual inflation now stands at 1 730% and the International Monetary Fund predicts it will reach 5 000% by year’s end.
In just eight weeks, the exchange rate on the black market, where even the Zimbabwe Central Bank has had to go to buy hard currency, has gone from Z$5 000 to $1 to Z$24 000 to $1.
”I don’t think we need to do much more to put economic pressure on the government because it seems to be doing a damn fine job of ruining its own economy,” said Dell. ”Let me put it this way, the government is applying much more effective sanctions on itself than the outside world could ever hope to craft and impose.”
Makumbe said powerful businessmen allied with the ruling party know their businesses cannot survive the economic freefall. While they may like Mugabe, they can’t afford to support him.
”While Mugabe is in office, the economy is not going to recover. Mugabe is a liability to the national economy and his opponents know it,” said Makumbe.
Dell said the collapsing economy has helped cause splits within the security services.
”The fact is that, over the last 27 years, the government there has ruled mostly by a combination of repression and patronage. As the economy evaporates from under the government, the ability to distribute largesse, to distribute patronage, disappears and the ability to support the security services disappears,” said Dell.
New spirit of resistance
Mugabe has used fear, violence and intimidation very effectively against the opposition, and the people of Zimbabwe have had good reason to be scared, the ambassador said.
”The key new element in the equation that’s really become obvious over the last 10 to 12 days is the new spirit of resistance — some would even use the word ‘defiance’ — on the part of the people,” said Dell. ”With this economic collapse, the people of Zimbabwe are being pushed to that point.
”And they are losing their fear, despite every effort of the government to build that fear over the last eight years. What I think we’ve seen over the last week is that the people have turned a corner and they are not afraid any more,” he added.
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was among those police assaulted to break up a March 11 prayer meeting. The opposition, which split in 2005 as a faction revolted against Tsvangirai’s leadership, has said it has unified in the face of the latest violence and will continue to resist.
Mugabe has also always had some support from his African neighbours in trying to resist international pressure for changes in his autocratic rule. But Dell said the recent violence against the opposition has changed the response from African governments and deepened his isolation.
South Africa issued its strongest criticism of Zimbabwe to date on Tuesday, and others in the region have been even more pointed.
”One thing you will notice is that none of them are really speaking in Mugabe’s defence any more. There is a kind of embarrassed silence in the region now. I think the scenes that we witnessed in the last few weeks of the black police and security forces of an African government assaulting its own people are too shockingly reminiscent of what happened in South Africa in the apartheid era,” said Dell.
”We will work to make sure that the isolation isn’t broken, that the regime knows that there is no way out except the well-trodden clear path of democratic and economic reform.” — Sapa-AP