South African President Thabo Mbeki’s mission to resolve the crisis across the border in Zimbabwe faces slim prospects of success due to deep-rooted suspicion between the protagonists, analysts say.
Mbeki was entrusted with the task by fellow Southern African leaders at a summit last month to broker talks between the opposition and President Robert Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF.
Sources close to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said Mbeki had already begun paving the way by setting up a five-strong team to draft the ground rules for the negotiations.
In an interview last week, Mbeki acknowledged that there was ultimately little he could do if neither side wanted the mediation to work.
”The only way to deal with these problems and the only way to achieve results is if we encourage the Zimbabwean political parties to engage with one another … Whether we succeed or not is up to the Zimbabwean leadership,” he told the Financial Times. ”None of us in the region has any power to force the Zimbabweans to agree.”
Scepticism
Both Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai have given their approval to Mbeki’s intervention, but Zimbabwe commentators have voiced deep scepticism about him getting results given the mistrust and issues to be tackled.
”The prospects are a mixed bag; the outcome is likely to be half-baked,” said University of Zimbabwe political scientist John Makumbe.
Political scientist Eldred Masunungure said the enmity between the MDC and Zanu-PF could be an insurmountable hurdle, especially in the wake of a recent crackdown on the opposition that saw Tsvangirai arrested and assaulted.
The latest violence ”deepened the mistrust and suspicion and that is a major stumbling block”, said Masunungure.
While the onus would be on Mbeki to craft confidence-building measures, analysts believe the South African president may not himself be widely trusted by the opposition given his reluctance to criticise Mugabe.
”Mbeki himself is a source of suspicion by the MDC,” said Masunungure. ”Previously they did not see him as an honest and impartial broker and he may be seen as part of the problem by the MDC.”
Makumbe agreed that ”the other hurdle is Mbeki”.
”He has not yet said he has abandoned his quiet-diplomacy policy and that will be a major drawback,” said Makumbe.
Most of the three million Zimbabweans to have fled their country in the wake of an economic meltdown, which has seen inflation climb to 1 730% and unemployment at 80%, have crossed over to South Africa.
Kid gloves
While Levy Mwanawasa, president of Zimbabwe’s northern neighbour Zambia, has said the ”quiet diplomacy” policy has not delivered, Mbeki is sticking to his guns.
”Mbeki can’t afford to handle the parties with kid gloves any more while the economy continues to break down and human rights violations escalate,” said Makumbe.
Experts say issues that need to be addressed include opposition demands for a new democratic constitution and a credible electoral body to oversee presidential and parliamentary elections next year. Mugabe, Africa’s oldest leader at 83, was recently chosen as Zanu-PF’s candidate.
They also say the electoral roll needs to be revamped, with hundreds of thousands of potential voters absent from the list.
Such demands are likely to be met with resistance by Zanu-PF, which analysts say has used the present system to ensure victory. ”I don’t think that Zanu-PF will like to dig their own grave by accepting” conditions for free and fair polls, according to Masunungure.
Takavafira Zhou, a lecturer at southern Zimbabwe’s Masvingo University, doubted Mbeki would ever be prepared to get tough with the notoriously stubborn Mugabe.
”I don’t think that he will succeed, because African leaders see President Mugabe as a champion of pan-Africanism and not as a crocodile liberator and an autocrat,” said Zhou. — Sapa-AFP