/ 4 May 2007

A home final is on the cards

It may never happen again, so let’s celebrate the fact that the final weekend of log play in the Super 14 features seven teams vying for four spots in next week’s semifinals.

The mathematical conundrums would addle the brain of the most committed Sudoku addict, so let the certainties be dealt with first.

If the Sharks beat the Stormers in Cape Town on Saturday afternoon, they will host a home semifinal. If the Crusaders beat the Chiefs in Christchurch, they will finish top of the log.

Beyond those facts it all gets very complicated indeed, but suffice to say that the two South African sides in the hunt could not have asked for a much more benign conclusion to the log section. If the Sharks do not beat the Stormers and, through an unlikely sequence of other events, thereby fail to finish in the top four, then they were not true title contenders in first place.

As for the Bulls, there is not a single side left in contention that would wish to play them next. The quality of the Bulls’ 40-19 demolition of the Blues at Loftus last week had to be seen to be believed. Never mind the Super 14; any bookmaker observing the match would instantly have dropped the price on South Africa winning the World Cup later this year.

In addition to peaking at precisely the right time, Heyneke Meyer’s men bask in the knowledge that they conclude against the worst team in the competition (the Reds), in the final game of the weekend. That means that before they trot down the tunnel on Saturday, they will know precisely what they need to do.

You may remember that something similar occurred last year. On a balmy Friday evening in Durban, the Sharks beat the Force 41-25 to reach fourth position on the log. The Sharks did everything right, scoring four tries in a resounding win, but crucially, they also conceded a couple of late tries.

The following day the Bulls played the Stormers in Cape Town, knowing that they needed to win with a bonus point by a margin of at least 33 points in order to leapfrog the Sharks into fourth position by way of a superior points differential. The result? Stormers 10, Bulls 43. You do the maths.

Returning to the tasks at hand, the Sharks are favourites, although not overwhelmingly so, to beat the Stormers, but absolutely no one in their right mind believes that the Reds can down the Bulls at Loftus. It is a question merely of how large the margin of victory will be for the home side.

The intrigue will lie in how large that victory needs to be, for if the Crusaders and Sharks should both conspire to lose, then the Bulls could still finish top of the log, thereby ensuring not just a home semi, but, if that match is won, a home final.

Recalling that frenetic finish last year, there was an air of inevitability surrounding proceedings. The magic number was 33, but it might have been 43, 53 or more and the Bulls would still have got there. If the Bulls need something astronomical on Saturday then the Reds are in for an awful hiding.

From a parochial point of view the one thing to be hoped is that the Sharks and Bulls do not finish second and third on the log, for that would mean a semifinal between the two. Any other combination keeps them apart until the final, and what an occasion that would be.

Ultimately, each team should be grateful that they hold their destiny in their own hands. The trials and tribulations of the Bulls early in the season, when they lost to the Sharks in the opening game and the Force a fortnight later, have been forgotten. The blue juggernaut has achieved an inexorable momentum.

The Sharks have reached second place (as we stand) through a six-match unbeaten run at the start of the year and a couple of fine wins on the road. The bonus point they earned for four tries against the Lions last week was their first in Durban this season and that statistic, above all else, may yet prove to be their undoing.

By contrast to the Bulls, the Sharks were less than convincing, despite beating the Lions 33-3 in Durban. Without BJ Botha at tighthead, the scrum was decidedly creaky and something indefinable was lost when AJ Venter was forced to leave the field before half time with a damaged hand. Nevertheless, Dick Muir’s team has got this far without once playing to their true potential and it may be that the best is yet to come.