A storm is brewing over President Thabo Mbeki’s now-shelved plans to overhaul his Cabinet by removing Minister of Health Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, triggering events that would have diluted Jacob Zuma’s support in the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government.
ANC insiders are claiming that a dramatic intervention by ANC treasurer general Mendi Msimang forced a U-turn on Mbeki’s plans to medically board convalescing
Tshabalala-Msimang.
They say this would have triggered a national Cabinet shake-up and revealed Mbeki’s motives in Zuma’s stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal where a provincial Cabinet shake up would also have been inevitable.
The decision would have seen Minister of Transport and acting Health Minister Jeff Radebe move into the health portfolio and the transport ministry taken over by KwaZulu-Natal Premier S’bu Ndebele, who did a sterling job during his tenure as provincial transport minister.
A KwaZulu-Natal minister said Mbeki wanted to release Ndebele from the pressure of a provincial Cabinet dominated by Zuma loyalists and a province that is increasingly hostile to Mbeki and his sympathisers.
‘The decision [to release Tshabalala-Msimang] had been made and all the necessary phone calls had been made. It would appear that Mbeki decided to offer the transport job to Ndebele. It was first claimed that Mbeki flew down to see Ndebele about this or that. Mbeki called Ndebele to his residence but the truth is that he phoned him and I understand Ndebele accepted,†said the minister.
‘This presented Mbeki and Ndebele with the dilemma of who would become the premier in the province in view of the fact that both would not want [KwaZulu-Natal minister for finance] Zweli Mkhize to take over.â€
As provincial deputy chairperson of the ANC, Mkhize is the next most senior leader in the province and protocol ‘dictated†that he be appointed premier.
Mkhize is also Zuma’s chief lieutenant in the province and a long-time rival of Ndebele, who leads the KwaZulu-Natal re-election campaign for Mbeki.
‘Razor sharp’
Sources in the provincial government, including members of the Zuma camp who had discussed the matter with Ndebele, claim Ndebele suggested that Mbeki appoint provincial Minister for Local Government, Housing and Traditional Affairs Mike Mabuyakhulu to the post.
To Zuma lieutenants in the province, this confirmed fears they had harboured for a while that Mabuyakhulu, once a fervent Zuma lobbyist, had drifted into the Mbeki camp.
Mabuyakhulu is also the ANC provincial treasurer who comes from the ‘razor sharp†dynasty of the Mabuyakhulu brothers — the late former MP Dan Mabuyakhulu, Amajuba district mayor Vincent Mabuyakhulu and John Mabuyakhulu, a councillor in the Empangeni local municipality.
One close Zuma associate said: ‘I knew this would happen and I warned that Mike [Mabuyakhulu] was being more cautious and non committal about his support for the PEC resolution to support Zuma.
‘We’ve lost him. I think we will lose more comrades as we approach the conference. What is clear for us is that the poaching season is well under way and Mike was going to be rewarded for crossing the floor.â€
It is not clear who the new premier would have appointed to the housing, local government and traditional affairs portfolio but sources in the provincial legislature and the ANC provincial executive claim Mabuyakhulu was offered the premiership job on two conditions.
‘He had to fire [then safety and security minister] Bheki Cele and [then-health minister] Peggy Nkonyeni, both of whom make no bones about their support for Zuma,†said a member of the PEC.
As chairperson of the eThekwini region, Cele has been influential in drumming up support for Zuma while Nkonyeni’s department is said to have massive dealings in government contracts with Zuma’s associates.
She is also one of Zuma’s loudest supporters in the provincial legislature. Zuma’s chief lobbyists in the province have twice grilled Ndebele about his deliberations with Mbeki and accused him of overlooking his deputy Mkhize when he suggested Mabuyakhulu be appointed premier.
Zuma’s diehard supporters in the province had so far been tolerating Ndebele’s fence-sitting strategy on the succession race in the ruling party. The recent developments could, however, see him becoming an outcast again.
Provincial secretary Senzo Mchunu said concern about Ndebele’s choice of his successor was first raised in a meeting of all regional secretaries.
‘The secretaries then mandated me as provincial secretary to raise the matter in a meeting at the provincial level. So, in an open meeting I asked him [Ndebele] to clear the air. He then said he knew nothing about it,†said Mchunu.
The Mail & Guardian has, however, learned that Zuma lobbyists outside the meeting further grilled Ndebele and he ‘crackedâ€. One such lobbyist said: ‘I felt it was necessary to go beyond the shadow boxing and I asked him privately to explain this.
‘He said to me ‘yes, the president has discussed this matter with me’.â€
There have been conflicting reports in the media about the content of the meetings between Msimang and Mbeki since Tshabalala-Msimang fell ill, with City Press reporting that Msimang had asked the president to release his wife.
However, sources in KwaZulu-Natal, the national government and the ANC leadership suggest that Msimang intervened to force Mbeki to reverse his decision to release the health minister.
The M&G has learned that the ANC treasurer general had argued against Mbeki’s decision, saying it was unfair to his sick wife as Mbeki had never released any minister on medical grounds before.
This was in apparent reference to past ministers who were ill and died in office, including the late safety and security minister, Steve Tshwete, the late public works minister, Stella Sigcau, and former transport minister, Dullah Omar.
This week, Msimang denied interfering with Mbeki’s plans, saying it was not up to him to tell the president how to compose his Cabinet.
A source in Tshabalala-Msimang’s office said Msimang had met the president to brief him about the state of Tshabalala-Msimang’s health.
Tshabalala-Msimang is expected to be back in the office in the next two weeks as she is scheduled to give the national health Budget speech on June 7, her spokesperson, Sibani Mngadi, said. But other sources have indicated that a new health minister could be appointed within the next 10 days.