New boys, lame ducks and a problem child head to Germany on Wednesday for a Group of Eight (G8) summit that will address the world’s most pressing concerns.
The annual major power jamboree is meant to focus on policies, but personalities might steal the limelight this year thanks to significant changes to the longstanding cast list and growing tensions between some of the leading players.
Newly elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy makes his debut on the G8 stage, while British Prime Minister Tony Blair heads towards the exit after a decade in office, his legacy jeopardised by the never-ending chaos in Iraq.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also promised to stand aside before next year’s summit, and can expect a cold reception after a year of virulent clashes with his Western counterparts that have raised fears of a second Cold War.
Putin will arrive at the summit on Wednesday after issuing a Cold War-style warning that Russia will revert to targeting missiles on Europe if the United States goes ahead with building a missile shield near its borders.
US President George Bush, weakened at home and abroad by the Iraq conflict, also risks a chilly welcome because of his refusal to back Germany’s initiative on global warming, and some of his peers are clearly already looking to the post-Bush era.
”There is a change of guard under way in world politics and we’ll see it clearly in Germany,” said Francois Heisbourg, chairperson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The most obvious sign of that will be the arrival of Sarkozy, whose emergence after 12 years of rule by his ageing predecessor, Jacques Chirac, promises to bring fresh zip and zeal to French diplomacy after a long period of introspection.
Chirac’s departure removes Bush’s biggest detractor from the top table and deprives Putin of his closest ally. It also gives Sarkozy his first chance to shine at an international level after a career spent immersed in domestic affairs.
A critic of Russia’s human rights record, the French leader has promised to have ”frank” talks with Putin at a bilateral meeting, but he might also be forthright with Bush, belying his image as France’s most pro-American leader in a generation.
Like other European leaders, he wants Bush to agree to clearly defined targets to reduce greenhouse gases and could use the German summit to prove to his leftist critics back home that he won’t be Bush’s French poodle.
”We’re friends, not subordinates,” he told reporters this week, referring to France’s relationship with the United States.
Short-lived honeymoons
Bringing a distinct ”get to know you” flavour to the summit, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also making his debut.
Like Sarkozy, he is the first leader of his country to be born after World War II, adding to the feeling that a significant generational shift is under way in global politics.
But he will serve as a warning to Sarkozy that leaders often enjoy only very short honeymoon periods after winning power.
An opinion poll this week showed support for Abe had fallen to its lowest level since he took office last September, dented by the suicide of a scandal-hit minister and government bungling of pension records that means retirees could be short-changed.
And the other leaders around the table won’t have much to smile about either as domestic problems cloud their futures.
Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi is languishing in the opinion polls barely a year after his narrow election victory and battling to overcome a scandal involving a key minister.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, making his second appearance at the G8, also has only a fragile grip on power and speculation he might call a snap election has receded after polls showed he didn’t stand a chance of winning a majority.
It will be up to the hostess at the Baltic resort of Heiligendamm, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to try to get the personal chemistry bubbling and make the summit a success.
Dismissed as a diplomatic novice when she won office in 2005, Merkel has since won widespread plaudits for her pragmatic leadership and enjoys high popularity ratings at home despite deep divisions within her coalition government.
”Merkel in some ways is looking the most substantive and authoritative of all the leaders,” said Carne Ross, director of Independent Diplomat, a non-profit, diplomatic advisory group.
However, he warned against high expectations for the summit, saying the problems were bigger than any of the personalities.
”We believe that these leaders have the world under their control and have the ability to solve its problems. The evidence shows that manifestly they do not,” he said. — Reuters