The notion of having both a president and a prime minister is intriguing. It is also gathering some traction behind the scenes. The question, however, is whether it is attractive because it has genuine merit, or because it provides a way out of the appalling mire in which the African National Congress (ANC) has immersed itself.
What is the scenario that might bring it about? Mbeki is stubborn: he will not withdraw his candidacy for president of the ANC just because Xolela Mangcu, Mondli Makhanya or some other commentator happens to advocate it.
And more to the point, he will certainly not withdraw until Jacob Zuma has done the same. This is a pity, say some of the ANC’s elder statesmen and women, because were Mbeki to withdraw, he would have the power to order JZ to withdraw as well.
I wonder if it would be quite so simple. Clearly, Mbeki has not yet made that calculation for himself, and no one has yet been able to persuade him of its merits. Mainly, it seems, because few of the more senior Cabinet colleagues can summon the courage to do so; in the main, they’re beholden to him and mindful of their pensions.
So, come December, the two Big Men will still be duelling. And the ANC secretary general, Kgalema Motlanthe, will be ducking and diving between them, seeking the ever-elusive compromise that will, at the 11th hour, spare the party more bloodletting.
The ANC has not had a contested presidential election for over half a century and I don’t believe it will have one now. Shortly before the national conference a deal will be done. An agreement to create a dual executive, with a president and a prime minister, might help tie it down. The sensible wing of the ANC, sick and tired of the fighting and the attendant smell of cordite, will encourage such a compromise.
It may simply be that one of the candidates will be made an offer he can’t refuse. Or else he will see the look in the eyes of the arriving delegates and know that in a secret ballot the provincial mandates will mean next to nothing. Defeat will be more painful than a tactical retreat.
So withdraw, on terms, they will. This could take the form of giving either Mbeki or Zuma the ceremonial position of president, while someone else runs the country as prime minister. But I doubt it. More likely, it will be a consensus-finding chap like Kgalema Motlanthe, with an admirable workhorse as prime minister. Then the question of how the amended constitution will divvy up the powers and authority of the two will be relatively easier to answer.
Remember that this is what actually happened during the first five years of democracy. Nelson Mandela led the country and his chief operations officer, Thabo Mbeki, ran the government as de facto prime minister (a first among equals in Cabinet, though his actual designation was ”executive deputy president”).
This, then, is Plan B.
Meanwhile, there are watershed political and constitutional issues to resolve, not least the parameters of free media speech. This is a time for calm heads. Instead, there seems to be a sense of panic in some quarters.
The main problem is that the country Mbeki governs is apparently less robust than he is. The establishment, it seems, is a bit more jumpy and sensitive than it generally cares to let on.
Mbeki is a combative man. He is not a punch bag and will not permit himself to be one. His best political instincts are always to fight back: no retreat, no surrender. Having a cosy chat to resolve conflicts is not his way; he much prefers a devastatingly worded letter.
Mind you, he has been writing some awful stuff as well. The last five weekly letters have been dreadful. People can be forgiven for thinking that the president, like King Lear on the Heath, has lost his marbles as he rails against his enemies.
On his mulish defence of the health minister he has largely lost the confidence of his Cabinet, organised civil society and world opinion.
I know only too well the pressures of writing a Friday column – and mine is only fortnightly! And I’m not exactly governing a country at the same time. But when Mbeki decides to hang up his presidential fighting gloves and has a little more time to refine his wonderfully provocative columns, it may be that we will all care a good deal less than we do now about what he says and how he expresses it, and will be able to enjoy them all the more. Perhaps he’ll even have time to find an editor.
It is time for Mbeki to retire – not so much because of who he is, but because he represents and amplifies the political style and culture of the ANC in exile. Those days are over. It is time to move on to a fresh new political culture.