Recent events and political blunders by the three leading ANC presidential candidates suggest the race is still wide open. Outsiders such as Cyril Ramaphosa, Kgalema Motlanthe and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma cannot be ruled out.
The power play in ANC regions and provinces indicates that the 2007 conference in Limpopo could be the most highly contested succession race since the party was founded in 1912.
With the exception of KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, which appear to be overwhelmingly behind Jacob Zuma, all nine provinces (the seven remaining provinces and the youth and women’s leagues that are regarded as “provinces”) are still up for grabs.
In an indication of clashes over the credentials of who can attend and vote at the national conference, the ANC has suspended membership officer Alex Sithole, who was accused of slashing membership numbers of pro-Zuma regions.
Membership audits were due to be concluded this week and presented to the national executive committee meeting this weekend.
However, the unexpected increases in membership in some regions pose a headache for the party. The Eastern Cape is claiming a membership of 190Â 000, despite the fact that the total national membership of the ANC is not more than 500 000.
The main rivals in the Zuma and Thabo Mbeki camps are criss-crossing the provinces, garnering support for three separate templates outlining candidates for the party’s top six positions.
The Tokyo Sexwale template has Sexwale for president, Kgalema Motlanthe for deputy president, Lindiwe Sisulu as national chairperson, Baleka Mbete for secretary general, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as deputy secretary general and Mathews Phosa as treasurer.
The Zuma template has Zuma for president, Motlanthe for deputy president, Gwede Mantashe for secretary general, Mbete for deputy secretary general, Makhenkesi Stofile or Dlamini-Zuma for national chairperson and Phosa for treasurer.
Similarly, the Mbeki template has Mbeki for president, Dlamini-Zuma as his deputy, Mosiuoa Lekota for secretary general, Thoko Didiza as deputy secretary general, Motlanthe as national chairperson and Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka as treasurer.
Dark horses such as businessman Ramaphosa, Motlanthe and Dlamini-Zuma are now more likely to emerge and steal the show in the event of a pullout by either Zuma or Mbeki, and continued poor support for Sexwale.
Compromise candidates and their lobbyists are sensing possible political shifts in the Zuma and Mbeki camps when the conference draws closer. They are betting on these shifts to propel a surprise candidate to the centre of the leadership tussle.
Motlanthe remains the favoured compromise candidate for the Zuma lobby. Other than Motlanthe, Dlamini-Zuma is the most acceptable candidate to supporters of the three candidates, although she has not been approached and it remains unclear whether she would be available.
Ramaphosa has, for the umpteenth time, issued a statement saying he is not interested in the leadership race. However, he is regarded as a threat by all the other camps and would be a formidable foe for any of them should he change his mind and enter at the last minute.
Power play in the provinces
It is generally accepted that a home base in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal or Gauteng is critical for any candidate going for the top job in the country.
The Eastern Cape held the trump card at the Stellenbosch conference in 2002, fielding 655 voting delegates — almost double the 393 delegates from second-placed KwaZulu-Natal.
At the time the province had a total membership of 70Â 651 compared with the current 190Â 262 members.
This time around the province is, however, not likely to go to conference as a powerful homogeneous bloc as it is gripped by factionalism.
While the province has resolved to support President Thabo Mbeki for a third term as party president, three of its seven regions are breaking ranks with the provincial leadership, with the 59 000-member OR Tambo (Umtata), the biggest ANC region in the country, announcing that it will support Zuma.
Dissenting voices in Ukhahlamba (Mt Fletcher) and Cacadu (Graaff-Reinet) regions are also campaigning for Zuma.
The province is still behind Mbeki, with the campaign being led by the Nelson Mandela (Port Elizabeth) and Amathole regions.
Mbekiites also have undivided support in the Chris Hani (Queenstown), and Alfred Nzo (Mt Frere) regions.
Provincial secretary Siphatho Handi says the provincial resolution to support Mbeki is receiving more support in the province.
“Even OR Tambo is not a homogeneous block calling for Zuma. While the regional executive committee announced its list for the ANC top six, the Youth League there simultaneously endorsed Mbeki.”
Handi believes Mbeki will be victorious at the national conference.
Mbekiites are also relying on the support of the Western Cape, North West, Northern Cape and significant support from Gauteng and Limpopo.
KwaZulu-Natal remains a stronghold for Zuma, but Mbekiites are making inroads.
Free State remains hung between Sexwale and Zuma.
The provincial power brokers are doing their best to keep Mbeki out, while Pat Matosa, who leads the Sexwale campaign in the province, appears to have garnered a lot of support.
Essop Pahad and Smuts Ngonyama, the two national executive committee deployees in the province, are working to win over Ace Magashule to the third-term project.
Although Magashule was, strangely, reinstated as a provincial minister by Premier Beatrice Marshoff, who had earlier fired him for incompetence, it is still not clear whether he will deliver for Mbeki.
Gauteng remains a frustration for both the Zuma and Mbeki camps. The province is pushing hard to avoid a contest between Zuma and Mbeki, but has not indicated its preferred compromise candidate. Sexwale is using both Gauteng and Free State as launch pads for his campaign.
Although Mbeki is supported by the ANC leadership in Limpopo, it is believed he does not enjoy the support of the regions. The Zuma camp claims Northern Cape, but observers believe that while Northern Cape ANC chairperson John Block supports Zuma he cannot be sure of the support of regions such as Kimberley, which has opposed him.
Mpumalanga is firmly behind Zuma, despite ANC chairperson Thabang Makwetla’s pro-Mbeki stance.
The Women’s League leadership is dominated by Mbeki supporters but it is yet to pronounce its preference.
Sexwale campaign
Powerful allies in government, the private sector and civil society are driving an ambitious campaign for Tokyo Sexwale in the event of Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma pulling out of the race.
Sexwale believes that ANC elders will convince both Mbeki and Zuma to step aside.
The Sexwale campaign has strong roots in the Free State, where Sexwale’s ally, Pat Matosa, has capitalised on the anti-Mbeki sentiment of senior provincial leaders such as Ace Magashule.
A source close to the Sexwale campaign says the former premier of Gauteng is receiving support in all parts of Gauteng except the City of Johannesburg.
“We have support in Tshwane, East Rand, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. We have only noticed interest in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, but nothing more.
“We are well received in the Eastern Cape by the youth league and Sanco structures.
“The union federation has also expressed interests in the event of new charges being brought against Zuma.”
The source says the Sexwale campaign does not rest on his ability to mobilise people but on the possibility that Zuma’s and Mbeki’s campaigns might collapse.
Sexwale, who is thought to have relied on Mbhazima Shilowa in Gauteng, appears to have dumped Shilowa after it became apparent that he did not wield as much power in the province as previously predicted.
Sources in the ANC say Mbekiites are disappointed that Shilowa has failed to deliver Gauteng to them as a homogenous bloc.
Zuma campaign
The Jacob Zuma campaign machinery, which took off long before that of the other candidates, has been slow in the past few months, with key thinker Blade Nzimande, general secretary of the SACP, being on the defensive himself.
Only the ANC Youth League, which is a “province” on its own, has reiterated its support for Zuma.
Although his campaign has made headway, Zuma’s top lieutenants in KwaZulu-Natal suggest that complacency is the biggest danger in the camp, with foot soldiers no longer as active as they were in the past.
Also worrying Zuma supporters is the possibility that Zuma might be charged with corruption in the near future and his refusal to consider a compromise candidate in the event that he is charged.
The campaign has been dealt a major blow by media reports that Nzimande is being investigated in relation to a missing R500 000 donation that never reached the coffers of the SACP.
Sources in the camp say the allegation has paralysed the left and Nzimande “seems to be withdrawn”. “His hands are tied. He is no longer the credible voice of the communists until this matter is resolved,” the sources say.