The audit of the ANC’s membership, with the final figures being tallied at Luthuli House, places presidential hopeful Jacob Zuma one step closer to becoming president of the party.
The audit, done in August to ensure that only “members in good standing” get to vote at the Limpopo conference in December, was not without its hiccups. In one case a province seems to have “lost” tens of thousands of members, while in other instances branches gained members.
Although the party headquarters remain tight-lipped on the exact numbers, the Mail & Guardian has learned that the Eastern Cape has the highest number of paid-up members, at 153 164. This is substantially lower than the original figure for this province, which stood at 190 000. Nevertheless, the province made it clear it would be the most influential voting force in Polokwane as audited membership figures translate proportionally into the number of voting delegates a province may send to the conference.
Smuts Ngonyama, the ANC head of presidency, said branches that are not in good standing have been discounted in the auditing process and cannot influence the number of voting delegates a province can have.
The loss of about 36 836 “members” in the Eastern Cape was due mainly to confusion about the cut-off date, which was stated as June 30 2007. The province understood that date to be the last day for new members to join.
The mandatory eight-week probation period during which the credentials of a potential member are checked before he or she becomes a full member was not taken into account. This meant the deadline for new members was, in fact, May 5 2007.
“It was a mistake on our part. We then had to deduct those who did not qualify under these conditions,” said Siphato Handi, ANC provincial secretary in the Eastern Cape.
Second in line is KwaZulu-Natal, with 102 742 paid-up members. Provincial secretary Senzo Mchunu said the province is satisfied that the audit adequately reflects the number of members it has.
“There were some mistakes in calculating that had to be rectified. In some cases one plus one equalled three, so that needed to be sorted out.”
KwaZulu-Natal, with pockets from the Eastern Cape, is seen as a stronghold for presidential hopeful Jacob Zuma.
The Eastern Cape has nominated Thabo Mbeki for president. However, the second-largest region in the Eastern Cape, OR Tambo, has hedged its bets on Zuma. This, with support from KwaZulu-Natal and the medium-sized Mpumalanga, puts Zuma in a better position than before to take the top job. Furthermore, he remains a strong contender for Limpopo, which ranks third in membership, and the Free State, while Gauteng, Northern Cape and the Western Cape are divided on which candidate they will support in December.
The North West seems set firmly behind Mbeki.
This week the regions were asked to look at the audited figures sent to them by secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe to ensure they agree on the numbers before the allocation of delegates takes place. The verification will be concluded this weekend.
In one Gauteng branch the membership shot up by at least 25% after the audit was done because of miscalculations, the M&G has been told.
Party spokesperson Tiyani Rikhotso said the maximum number of voting delegates is 4 000, but only 3 600 will come from branches. The remaining 400 will be delegates from the youth league and women’s league, as well as the national and provincial executive committees.
“For each province the allocation will be done by dividing the total among the audited branches in good standing. Each branch will be able to decide for itself who it wants to send to the conference and, at national level, we will assume that these are members in good standing,” said Rikhotso.
The two smallest provinces are the Northern Cape, with 37 358, and the Western Cape, with 35 596.
Although the spokesperson for the party in the Western Cape, Garth Strachan, is confident about the success of the Imvuselelo campaign aimed at swelling the number of members at branch level, the M&G understands that infighting among the provincial leadership has led to a slump in enthusiasm over the recruitment of members.
“There are some people who simply refused to do anything to help the campaign because they were unhappy with the current leadership in the province,” a source from the Dullah Omar region, the largest in the province, claimed.
“The verification process had everyone very nervous and therefore the utmost care was taken when the numbers were put together. We knew, for instance, to be suspicious when a stack of application forms arrived with a wad of cash that it needed to be checked very thoroughly.”
Another ANC source close to the process ascribed discrepancies between the membership figures submitted by provinces and the final audited figures to “human error”.
“Some provinces want to have the highest number of people at the conference, but if you put that number to the test, it does not make the grade. Some have made mistakes here and there, while others have huge margins. Some include members from branches that did not have the proper annual general meetings or people who joined after June 30.”
ANC structures can start officially nominating from October 1. The ANC has delegated an electoral commission of party veterans to take over this process until the conference in December.