There are two really big problems with the struggle for leadership of the ANC and they are both covered by the deployment of one simple metaphor: the iceberg.
Most of what you see is the tip protruding from the water. Much of what matters is below. But the water is very dark and very cold. Few people, if any, really know all that is happening below the surface. But even members of the party’s national executive committee (NEC) will tell you they don’t fully understand what is going on.
Everyone, however, is clear about the fact that there are two huge icebergs in the water at present. While no one knows where they’re going to end up, it looks like they’re headed for each other, with the ship of state floating smack in the middle.
Which brings me to the second point: each iceberg represents two massive pyramids of individuals who stand to gain greatly or lose greatly, depending on the success or otherwise of the man at the top.
This is a contest between two massive streams of political influence and, in some cases, patronage. RecogÂÂnising this is a very potent guide to overall comprehension.
So, as more than one NEC member describes it to me, both camps have a great deal to lose, but on balance Zuma has more to lose because he has even more to gain (if you follow). There are people around him — the 100-percenters, his most belligerent followers and advisers — who will have nothing if he fails and so their personal interests inform his political strategy. They would sooner fly to Mars to live in a retirement cottage with Tony Leon than give up on the presidency.
In contrast, on the Mbeki side there are people who, perhaps partly out of the weariness that comes with a prolonged period in government, are willing to cede the battle — but not to Zuma. Oh no! To a ”third-way” candidate, which is the question that remains on the lips and in the hearts of many of the core members who traditionally make up the membership and leadership of the organisation. Can a third-way rabbit be pulled out of the hat?
At this point, possibly, but probably not. Delicate, discreet efforts are being made, but these are deliberately kept well below the surface for fear that publicity will kill off such attempts once and for all. So, opinion is divided between those ANC senior insiders who have actively not given up hope that a suitable third candidate can still emerge and win, and those who have passively not given up hope, but who are doing little about it because they think that it is too late now and that it is all about the two big men.
At the NEC meeting last weekend the fight raged, but rather more calmly than of late, despite Mosiuoa Lekota’s typically clumsy intervention. By attacking Zuma he was in one swoop throwing his hat firmly in with the Mbeki camp while at the same time seeking to articulate his place in the ANC firmament as a decent man of principle within the ANC’s most honourable traditions, such as non-ethnicity, the very point on which he was justifiably attacking Zuma.
Mbeki had obligations at the G20 meeting in the Cape and so spent little time at the NEC. As a consequence, there were some half-hearted assaults on his style of politics, which many members of the NEC — whether they support Zuma or not — hold responsible for the delicate predicament the ANC now faces. Even some of Mbeki’s closest supporters know deep down that it would be better if their man stood aside, but only on condition that Zuma is defeated.
As Polokwane draws closer the more careful analysts have sought to follow the detail of the internal ANC nominating and mandating process. On the balance of probabilities, Mbeki might be a nose ahead at the moment. But the final uncertainty of this most intriguing of races is that the ballot at the conference is a secret one. The keenly disputed branch nominations and provincial mandates might count for extremely little once the deleÂÂgates arrive in Limpopo. The identity of the delegates — their political background, political education, personal prejudices and principles and integrity — could well be decisive.
Expect a feeding frenzy of lobbying as the conference starts. There are already rumours of money changing hands. Pork-barrel politics might be the order of the day. Inevitably promises — probably wild, unsustainable, foolish promises — will be made. The streams of patronage will flow fast.
And do not expect the game to be over on December 21. Only the madly optimistic believe that the New Year will usher in a calm new dawn. The recriminations and repercussions, either way, will continue. As this messy process reaches its crescendo the big question is whether it represents a watershed for the country — or just for the ANC.