Enigmatic as it may appear, there are clear reasons for the popularity of ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma. Any lingering doubts were cleared up last weekend, when the majority of ANC national conference delegates nominated him for president. Even the ANC’s Women’s League has lined up in support of Zuma, who has long received the support of the South African Communist Party, the ANC Youth League and the Young Communist League.
But why does a man who has assured investors that he will not initiate or favour any fundamental shift from the government’s neoliberal economic policies command the support of the left? This is the most troubling question, because it shows that his mass support may be perilously pivoted on a hollow, naïve and contradictory populism. In fact, Zuma’s growing support in poor areas does not diminish, but instead reinforces, the validity of questions about his ‘leftist†credentials.
There are several underlying factors for this popularity.
One, the various moves against Zuma by President Thabo Mbeki and state agencies won him tremendous popular sympathy. When the masses are unhappy with their lot and a leader who has suffered expulsion and humiliation turns to them, identifies with their plight and admits that they have been neglected, there will be a massive gravitation towards him. Zuma has played his cards in front of the masses brilliantly. He made the right noises at the right time, and he patiently listened and empathised with them, unlike the haughty, distant and defensive Mbeki.
Two, Zuma used his down-to-earth style very effectively. This has increased popular confidence in him and created a magnetic chemistry.
Three, behind much of his mass appeal is, ironically, the figure of his chief adversary, whose actions have helped to secure Zuma’s popularity. Zuma is riding on a wave of dislike for Mbeki in the ANC ranks.
Four, there can be no doubt that Cosatu’s support for Zuma — largely based on how much Mbeki had alienated them over the years — is the biggest factor behind Zuma’s popularity. Cosatu’s 1,8-million members are often sole breadwinners.
Five, the only possible but inherently risky rationale for SACP and Cosatu support for Zuma is strategic. They are hoping that if he becomes president, they can persuade him on a quid pro quo basis to adopt policies that Mbeki has persistently rejected. But this can only happen if the ANC recaptures the policy-making prerogative, which Mbeki’s Cabinet usurped, and inevitably means subverting the undertakings Zuma has given investors.
Can that happen? Probably not. But if Zuma becomes ANC president, the period leading up to the 2009 elections will probably be the most tumultuous in the history of the ANC, and possibly the country.
Ebrahim Harvey is a political writer