The damning admission recently by the chairperson of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Samuel Kivuitu, that re-elected President Mwai Kibaki might not have won the fiercely contested presidential election has confirmed suspicions that the process was flawed and that the announced results did not reflect Kenyans’ votes. Further confusing matters, Kivuitu later told the international media that he would have to see the original records in order to confirm whether Kibaki had won.
The bloodletting taking place in various parts of the country, stoked by Kavuitu’s admission, has mainly targeted Kenyans of Kikuyu origin. The widespread looting and wanton burning of properties owned by Kikuyus, mainly in the expansive Rift Valley province and western Kenya, have been accompanied by senseless killings that have left more than 300 people dead and driven tens of thousands to hide in police stations and churches. Many more have fled to their ancestral homes in Central province or to Uganda and Tanzania.
Kikuyus are paying a heavy price for a number of things. Besides supporting Kibaki’s reelection, they have also been accused of dominating the government and the economy and for excluding other Kenyans. There is deep mistrust of the Kikuyus, particularly since the collapse of the National Rainbow Coalition of Kenya (Narc), which brought to an end the 24 years of misrule by Daniel arap Moi.
The Narc coalition was composed of key leaders from various ethnic groups, mainly Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo and Kamba, and included Raila Odinga. It came to an acrimonious end in 2005 after Odinga teamed up with William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka to defeat a referendum on a government-supported draft constitution. Out of this victory was born the Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the creation of which resulted in the dismissal of Odinga, Ruto, Kalonzo and other pro-Orange ministers from the Kibaki cabinet.
Despite this setback, Kibaki appeared to command support from a sizeable number of Kenyans, mainly because of the improved economy and the provision of free primary education. But there weremany who felt left out of the much-hyped economic boom.
Sadly, Kibaki continued with business as usual. He seemed to care little about the concerns of Kenyans on issues such as corruption and fair distribution of key government positions, particularly in ministries such as education and finance.
Kibaki naively designed his re-election campaign around the strategy that Kenyans were not ready to elect a “Luo President.” This was a fatal miscalculation, as Odinga — a Luo — was not only nominated as ODM’s presidential candidate but also saw his rating in opinion polls surpass Kibaki’s in August last year. It was then that Kibaki hurriedly cobbled together the Party of National Unity (PNU) to seek a re-election.
By then, Kibaki had not only lost enormous opportunities but also the hearts and minds of Kenyans who were being sold campaign messages carefully crafted to hide the ethno-political realities of Kenya. Many saw the opposition’s proposal for ethnic federalism, or “majimbo”, as an opportunity for the redistribution of government resources and positions that had hitherto been monopolised by Kikuyus.
While Kibaki was running the campaign on a platform of economic growth, Raila ran his on balancing the ethnic composition of government. The December 27 vote was to be a balancing act that was stolen.
The Kikuyus in Rift Valley, Western, Nyanza, Nairobi and Coast provinces are now paying for the “Kibaki re-election”, as deep emotions had been invested in redressing the ethnic imbalance in government.
Although it was the electoral commission’s announcement that triggered the violence, the root cause lies in the ethnic politics of the country. Two ethnic groups have ruled Kenya since independence in 1963. The first president, Jomo Kenyatta, was a Kikuyu and was succeeded by his vice-president, Daniel arap Moi, a Kalenjin, when he died in August 1978. One of the main characteristics of the Kenyatta regime was the monopolisation of state power in the hands of a few Kikuyus from his Kiambu area, and during his 15-year rule most Kenyan ethnic groups felt marginalised. Way forward
Since Kivuitu’s admission that the presidential vote may have been tampered with, the electoral process has lost its credibility and Kibaki’s legitimacy is severely eroded. The chaotic outcome has also dented the reputation Kenya had laboriously built as a beacon of democracy in a turbulent region. The ramification of this flawed and chaotic process has far-reaching national and regional implications. The outcome has deprived Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Southern Sudan of essential goods that they receive through the Mombasa port.
Kenya must quickly restore political stability to end the ongoing ethnic cleansing, destruction of property, massive displacement of populations and the spiral of violence. This will require dialogue between Kibaki and Odinga to establish a framework to resolve the electoral dispute. Among solutions that should be considered are the immediate re-tallying of votes and approaching the constitutional court with the final and correct tally to rule on who was democratically elected as president of Kenya.
Dr Wafula Okumu is a Kenyan political scientist and the director of the African Security Analysis Programme at the Institute for Security Studies. He writes from Nairobi