You can’t really argue with a guy whose vision, expertise and sheer hard work have made him the world’s richest man while placing him at the centre of the most important technological developments of modern times.
But after Microsoft founder and chairperson Bill Gates gave what he said was his last keynote address to the Consumer Electronics Show late on Sunday night, it’s worth bearing in mind that he has often been dramatically wrong about where he thought technology was heading.
Remember his predictions about how the tablet PC would become the dominant design of computers, or that the problem of spam would be solved by 2006? What about his touting of the Spot internet-enabled watches and the Mira Smartscreen — now all but invisible on the techscape?
Chances are that if you weren’t one of the thousands who queued for hours to hear his keynote addresses over the past decade you don’t remember these prognostications — which is probably a good thing, because his wider predictions have been more accurate.
He has championed the idea of widespread computer use and of convergence between devices to enable what he calls the digital lifestyle. He has also ensured the centrality of the PC in the digital world, even as other devices from cellphones to televisions provide increasingly sophisticated services.
Even on some of his most famous mistakes, like his failure to identify the potential of the internet until it was a fully fledged craze in 1996, he has always proved adept at admitting his shortcomings and pouring huge resources into catching his early-bird rivals.
This year his talk centred on the successes of the past digital decade and what he expected to be the main development in the coming 10 years. Not for him the passing fads of social networking and Web 2.0. His big prediction was that computing itself would become more intuitive — that easy-to-use devices like the iPhone would become the standard rather than the exception.
”The first digital decade has been a great success,” he said of the past 10 years. ”The second digital decade will be more focused on connecting people. It will be more user-centric.”
Of natural user interfaces, he said: ”This is the area that people underestimate the most. But the reaction to these natural interfaces has been very strong.”
Analysts expect Gates to be right again. ”The industry looked to him for guidance,” said Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies, a technology research firm. ”And he’s delivered on that. He’s been a visionary from the beginning.”
Despite his spotty predictions record, his departure could leave a vacuum at the pinnacle of the tech world. ”He’s kind of like the pope of our industry,” said Gary Shapiro, president of the Consumer Electronics Association. ”And as the pope he always draws a crowd and people follow every word he says. You either go to heaven or you don’t if you have the Microsoft blessing.”
None of Gates’s rumoured successors at Microsoft appear capable of filling that wider industry role. Many see his long-time rival Steve Jobs as the man to fill his shoes. Jobs has already turned Apple around and placed it at the forefront of consumer technology, digital entertainment and cellphone innovation.
Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the founders of Google, may also step up. But as the man who more than ever influenced how billions of people interact with computers, Bill Gates will be irreplaceable. — Sapa-dpa