There is gleeful laughter coming from Michigan in the wake of Mitt Romney’s victory in that state’s primary — some of it emanating from the Romney camp. The win was crucial for him — if he’d lost his third straight contest he’d have been offering his withdrawal speech. So he lives to fight another day.
But the loudest chuckles are coming from Democrats, because Romney’s victory accomplishes two things that make Democrats very happy. First, it throws the Republican race into disarray. People (including me) were already writing post-New Hampshire and pre-Michigan that the nod appeared to be John McCain’s for the taking. McCain had momentum after his New Hampshire win, and he had won Michigan against George W Bush in 2000, so it wasn’t entirely unreasonable to think that he might be on his way to glory.
But that was stopped cold by Michigan voters. Now, not only is there no Republican frontrunner; there’s not even anything resembling a likely victory scenario for any of the top-tier candidates.
Second, the result seemed to confirm that Republican voters are deeply unenthusiastic about the choices before them. The Republicans, far more than the Democrats, usually have by this point in the process an ”establishment” candidate around whom the party faithful have rallied. But not this time. What Republicans in Iowa wanted was not very appealing to Republicans in New Hampshire, which in turn didn’t do much to warm the hearts of Republicans in Michigan. This indicates that all three winners — Romney, McCain and Mike Huckabee in Iowa — have serious limitations.
More interestingly still, the exit polls from Michigan, which measure voter attitudes to a range of issues as well as their feelings about the candidates, suggest a party at odds with itself. Two results stood out. Those who voted in the Republican primary said they viewed the Bush administration positively only by a margin of 53% to 45%. That’s a stunning degree of unpopularity for an incumbent president among members of his own party. Granted Bush is doing better than that among Republicans nationally.
But Michigan is a key general election state, one that Democrats have won lately but that is always close. The fact that the state’s Republicans are so divided about their president hints at big November problems in Michigan — and, possibly, in other suffering industrial states, most notably Ohio.
Second, 36% of Republican voters said they disapproved of the Iraq war, while 62% still approved. Now, 62% may sound fairly high. But among Republican primary voters, it’s low. This, too, has potential ramifications for November. The Republican nominee, whoever it turns out to be, will be under immense pressure from the Washington-based Republican establishment to vow to stick with Bush’s Iraq policy. But if that policy is unloved by fully one-third of even Republican voters, it indicates that the Democrat arguing to reverse Bush’s policy in Iraq will have broad public support on that important issue.
But before the Democrats bust a gut laughing, it’s possible that a newly wide-open race could end up being good for the Republicans. The battle for the nomination, it now seems clear, will be a gruelling endurance test. People who win gruelling endurance tests tend to emerge more battle-tested and battle-ready than people who win cakewalks. It’s also suddenly plausible that Rudy Giuliani, who I still think may be the party’s strongest candidate for November, could elbow his way back into this thing. He’s counting on a win in Florida, which votes on January 29.
But if the primary season so far has taught us anything, it’s to take these things one day at a time. And this is a day for Democrats to regard with contentment. — Â