/ 18 January 2008

Eighteen million reasons to place your bet

Any country that wants to win the African Cup of Nations had better have a population of at least 15-million — or they might as well bury the thought.

Since the inaugural tournament more than half a century ago, the Cup has only once been won by a country that boasts a population of less than 15-million — in 1972, four million-strong Congo-Brazzaville won it.

This unconventional approach to statistics begins to shake in the wind when we look at Nigeria’s record. With a population of more than 140-million, Nigeria should have won the tournament more often than anyone else. In fact, they have only won it twice — in 1980 and 1994 — the same number of times as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Nigeria might have posed another credible challenge in 1996, but the poisoned politics of Sani Abacha’s government saw them refusing to participate in the tourney. Hosts South Africa, with a population of about 47-million people and recently emerged from pariah status, walked away with the trophy instead.

The statistical approach is bolstered by the second-most populous country on the continent, Egypt, who have won the cup five times. Even Ethiopia, with a population of about 75-million and not particularly known for its football prowess, were winners in 1962.

The DRC, with about 60-million people, won it way back in 1968 and again in 1974, which was the same year the country went to the World Cup. There, in the group stages, they were beaten by Scotland, Brazil and the then-Yugoslavia, who shipped nine goals past them in a totally one-sided match. All in all, they conceded 14 goals and didn’t bother to score at all, coming back to the continent with their heads bowed in shame.

Sudan, the biggest country in terms of land mass, won the Cup once, in 1960. With a population of about 40-million, it is not immediately clear why Sudan’s team of 23 players is drawn from just two clubs. Cameroon, by contrast, draws from 23, and its coach must be cracking his head over how to make players from many different leagues gel into a team. Sudan’s league champions, Al Hilal, provide 12 players and last season’s league runners-up, Al Merreikh, supply the rest.

An obvious problem with this hypothesis is that Ghana, with a population of slightly more than 22-million, has won the Cup four times, as has Cameroon, with about 18-million. Why is it that South Africa was beaten in a friendly by a five-million-strong Scotland, or by Iceland, with a population the size of Johannesburg’s Carletonville — about 350 000.

Another obvious problem with statistics is that countries such as Tanzania and Kenya, both boasting more than 30-million, have never won the Cup. Neither qualified for this year’s competition.

Senegal, Tunisia, Guinea, Zambia, Angola, Benin and Mali, all hovering at about the 10-million mark, are punching above their populations. But it is Namibia, with a population of just two million and one of Southern Africa’s four representatives at the tournament, that might question this population-related logic. South Africa qualified as one of the best-placed runners-up, behind sparsely populated Zambia.

If we consider numbers alone, this year’s winner will be either Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Sudan, Morocco or the DRC — except that Laurent Kabila’s country can’t possibly win the tournament, as they didn’t bother to qualify in the first place.

But if one looks at the quality and depth of teams of the middling populations of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon, one is tempted to say the statistics theory is a dud and a winner is likely to come from one of these three. My money is on Côte d’Ivoire — for about 18 million reasons.