Zimbabwe is on a path of renewal. On March 29 the baby was conceived. The birth pains and the labour might be arduous, but we are absolutely certain that the baby will be delivered.
To anticipate the future we need to understand our past. The Zimbabwe crisis is inextricably linked to the nature of the post-colonial state. In 1980 Robert Mugabe inherited a state that was not designed to be democratic or liberal. It was no different from the preceding colonial one: a militarised and privatised state controlled by and serving the interests of the few. Elections (in 2002, 2005 and 2008) were nominal exercises designed to put a veneer of legitimacy on a fundamentally undemocratic construction. Transfer of power was not on the agenda. The purpose was merely to generate international recognition. This cycle ended on the March 29. Now, for the first time, Zanu-PF faces the real prospect of losing power.
The crisis in Zimbabwe is presided over by people who are physically exhausted and pursuing an outdated ideology of nationalism. At the same time asset-stripping and major illegal transactions are taking place. Incidentally, corporates doing business with Mugabe should know that they are dealing with an illegal regime, the mandate of which expired on March 28, with no substantive right to negotiate contracts.
Zanu-PF successfully dealt with the historical issues of colonisation, but its ideologies were not designed to meet the intricacies of a modern democratic state.
Nor did it succeed in democratising itself as a political party.
In essence the struggle in Zimbabwe is not a struggle between the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Zanu-PF.
It is a generational struggle between tired nationalists and those who prioritise the completion of nationalism’s unfinished business: democratisation.
A pursuit of democracy that does not undermine the nationalist issues of land or social justice is critical because the reality of oppression and closure of public spaces exists.
The crisis is characterised by violent physical conflict where people are killed or displaced and their properties destroyed. In Chiweshe, where the MDC received a majority vote in the March elections, 11 people were killed.
Nationwide unemployment stands at 90%, inflation at 400 000% and four million Zimbabweans live in South Africa. Food is used as a political weapon and in areas where the MDC performed well in the past election, food aid is deliberately withheld.
The prime lending rate stands at 4 500% and the largest currency denomination, Z$50-million, cannot buy a pint of beer. Four thousand people die of hunger in Zimbabwe each week. This equates to 160 000 deaths in 10 months compared with 50 000 deaths in the national war of liberation.
Mugabe has taken our country back to 1923 when cholera and dysentery were the main causes of death. Now, as in 1923, people hunt for meat and cross the border to South Africa to find work and earn money.
Despite this disastrous legacy, Zanu-PF stole 50 000 votes to award itself a run-off in the presidential race. Forcing this run-off in an election that he lost shows just how desperate Mugabe has become.
In the unlikely event that Mugabe should win, Zimbabwe faces a further constitutional crisis since the MDC now controls Parliament.
There must be a solution in Zimbabwe. Respect for the principles of democracy and the people’s vote is fundamental to a settlement. Morgan Tsvangirai must lead whatever arrangement is agreed to. Some might call it ”a transitional authority”, others a ”government of national unity”, yet others a ”government of national healing”. The country requires healing, truth, reconciliation and justice.
To help realise these goals, Zimbabwe might need a truth and justice commission.
In the new government everyone should be a stakeholder. Yet the MDC draws the line with Mugabe. He is not part of the future and consequently he cannot be a part of a settlement in Zimbabwe.
Any agreement must be based on substance. It must not be an opportunistic agreement to resolve the conflict of elites. It cannot be an elite pact or a solution as in Kenya.
It must include fundamentals that can be delivered. There must be a new Constitution, by Zimbabwe for Zimbabwe. There must be a commitment to democratisation, social and economic reconstruction and national healing. Recognition of the people’s victory of 2008 is essential.
Zimbabweans did what they could. Alas, where is the midwife to deliver the baby? Southern African Development Community, the African Union and South Africa have a duty to play their part. Leadership must emerge from the international community to fill the vacuum of mediocrity, inaction and paralysis. Without this the population of Zimbabwe might have no option but to fight back.
Tendai Biti is secretary general of the Movement for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe. This is an edited version of his speech at an Institute for Justice and Reconciliation symposium held in Cape Town on May 8