Zimbabwe’s presidential vote is unlikely to end the country’s accelerating political and economic crisis, with neither side willing to enter a unity government to end the bloodshed.
There are growing calls for a coalition government instead of an election because of mounting violence. United States-based Human Rights Watch and ruling Zanu-PF party defector Simba Makoni have both said a fair poll is impossible in the current climate.
But opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who says 66 of his supporters have been murdered in a brutal government campaign, has rejected the call.
Zanu-PF hardliners, who blame the violence on the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), despise Tsvangirai and are also unlikely to agree.
However, a win by either President Robert Mugabe or Tsvangirai in the June 27 run-off poll would likely not be accepted by opposing supporters and could plunge the once-prosperous country deeper into crisis and violence.
”What is clear is that the election [run-off] is not going to end the crisis because Mugabe has declared war to stay,” said John Makumbe, a veteran political commentator and Mugabe critic.
Makumbe said Mugabe’s personal dislike of Tsvangirai — whom he calls a ”pathetic Western puppet” — would hinder any efforts to unite and be viewed by hardliners as political defeat.
”At best, I think Zanu-PF would try to work with other MDC officials but not Tsvangirai. In the short term I think this political stalemate is going to continue, the economy is going to continue crumbling and people are going to suffer,” he said.
Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of political pressure group the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) agreed.
”For the MDC, the political violence that is going on is also hardening feelings in its ranks … and if we are going to get talks on a government of national unity, these talks are going to be long and hard,” he said.
”What I see is a long, drawn crisis, and more hard days ahead.”
Economic collapse
The MDC blames Mugabe for Zimbabwe’s economic collapse. Inflation is at least 165 000%, unemployment 80% and there are chronic food and fuel shortages. The United Nations says almost a quarter of the population need humanitarian assistance.
Mugabe and the Zanu-PF lost both presidential and parliamentary elections on March 29, but Tsvangirai did not win enough votes for an outright victory, forcing a second round.
The MDC, human rights groups and Western powers say Zanu-PF has deployed security forces, war veterans and youth militia in a campaign of violence and dirty tricks to cripple Tsvangirai’s chances this time.
In the last month, police have detained Tsvangirai four times, arrested half a dozen opposition legislators and officials, hundreds of activists, union leaders and journalists.
Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s sole ruler since independence in 1980, has vowed never to allow the MDC to rule, saying it is a front for former colonial power Britain.
Rights groups and the MDC say independence war veterans and youth militia are driving villagers to nightly meetings and telling them: ”Vote Mugabe or prepare for war.”
Analysts fear the country is slowly sliding into a circle of violence that may be difficult to control, and say angry MDC activists have started fighting back.
Mugabe’s government says ”MDC thugs” have killed a number of Zanu-PF activists, including independence war veterans.
A senior Western diplomat said the international community was more or less agreed that Mugabe was going to hang on, with disastrous consequences for the country.
”It’s an absolute disaster. The election has been turned into a farce and everyone feels let down by the regional leaders,” the diplomat said.
The MDC says it will still win despite a crippled campaign, but Madhuku believes Mugabe’s supporters may have done enough to turn the tide.
”The campaign has been particularly brutal and I think Zanu-PF has struck the fear chord, which will force many people to vote against their wishes simply to have some peace,” he said.
”They have thrown away the rule book, and I think they will get the electoral result they want.”
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, one of the officials running Mugabe’s campaign, dismissed MDC protests. ”They are staring defeat in the face and are making wild accusations.”
He said Zanu-PF was merely working hard to get out the vote from supporters who did not cast ballots in March. ”We are going to win fair and square with a large majority,” he said.
Knox Chitiyo of the Africa programme at London’s United Services Institute said the violence would spur the population to vote for Tsvangirai despite his difficulty in campaigning.
”Most votes will go to him, but the state will do it’s best to declare Mugabe the winner,” he said. — Reuters