Even if the Zimbabwean power-sharing deal had not reached a deadlock over the allocation of Cabinet posts, there were already many signs that the new government was unlikely to hold for long.
Constitutional amendments needed to make the deal work were delayed in Parliament, which held its first session in nine months this week after bickering about procedures leading to the election of a legal committee of ministers to oversee the process. It will take at least a month to push through the necessary amendments, but the process already appears to be bogged down.
President Robert Mugabe was close to yielding the finance portfolio in Wednesday’s talks, one of his senior officials told the Mail & Guardian. But a row over the allocation of the 10 provincial governor posts delayed a breakthrough. The Zanu-PF official said it was difficult to see how the new government would hold even if a deal on the distribution of Cabinet posts was reached.
On Wednesday reporters got a taste of the bickering as one press conference after another to announce a settlement was called, only to be cancelled repeatedly. Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai later emerged to announce that the talks would head into a third day. His secretary general, Tendai Biti, said a whole “basket” of disagreements remained.
At the House of Assembly it was evident that the two parties have grown further apart despite the signing of the agreement. The two sides traded insults in the first session of debate, with a lengthy altercation ensuing after an opposition minister refused to withdraw his statement that Mugabe’s opening speech to Parliament in August was “just as tired as he is”.
There were further complications for the negotiators after Sam Nkomo, Tsvangirai’s home affairs minister-designate should Mugabe yield on the portfolio, said he would go after those responsible for the violence leading up to the June runoff. “For there to be any meaningful national healing there is a need for all the crimes of political violence to be investigated and all the perpetrators brought to book,” Nkomo said.
The fate of security figures and militiamen accused of violence was a potential deal-breaker in the earlier rounds of talks, but Zanu-PF managed to secure a compromise in which both sides admitted to “collective liability” for the violence in which more than 100 people were killed. Meanwhile, the argument Zanu-PF has advanced for retaining the finance ministry is likely to attract derision.
Joram Gumbo, Zanu-PF parliamentary chief whip, appeared to suggest on Wednesday that Mugabe believes that although the economy has hit rock bottom his government’s strategies have so far served to navigate the crisis well.
Gumbo said: “Mugabe thinks he should retain the portfolio of ministry of finance because he thinks that in the past few years we have survived under sanctions. We have had some means for surviving under those difficult times, so he believes that if the implementation of this agreement does not mean that by the following day there will be an end or lifting of sanctions — we should then continue with the present administration. That’s the basic argument.”
But former finance minister Simba Makoni, who stood for president as an independent in March, said it was “unjustifiable” for Mugabe to demand stewardship of economic portfolios given his record. “We all know why we are in this mess and who brought us here,” Makoni said. “It would be illogical and unjustifiable for people to demand posts in which they know they failed to deliver in the past 28 years.”
Thabo Mbeki arrived in Harare this week to doubts about his ability to save the deal after he was ousted as South African president. But his spokesperson, Mukoni Ratshitanga, insisted Mbeki was confident of breaking the impasse and ensuring the deal held.
A diplomat said Mbeki would be desperate to bolster his legacy. “This might be a good thing, or a bad thing. He might succeed because he will work hard at it, or he might be too eager and rush things.”
The euphoria that accompanied the signing of the deal last month has disappeared and few ordinary Zimbabweans still have faith that an agreement will hold, even if one is eventually reached.
The four weeks since the September signing have seen a sharper descent towards economic ruin, with inflation reaching 231-million percent and more people pushed deeper into poverty as the government has begun dollarising the economy. Further evidence of the depth of the crisis emerged last week when the government failed to run national public examinations.
“Between a two-month teachers’ strike, limited learning materials, political violence and displacements, Zimbabwe’s children have lost a whole year of schooling,” said Unicef representative Roeland Monasch. “The depletion of teachers in schools, transport and food problems faced by the remaining teachers, as well as a lack of resources have left the sector teetering on the brink of collapse.”
Threats to resume sanctions
President Robert Mugabe’s Western critics, thrown off track by last month’s power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe, are once again finding their voices as bickering over Cabinet posts throws up deep flaws in the agreement.
This week Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, said Europe “shall resume sanctions and reinforce them” if Mugabe insists on keeping the bulk of key ministries.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the European Union would “play no part in supporting a power grab by the Mugabe regime”, while the United States government warned that Mugabe had “overstepped the bounds of the agreement” by unilaterally handing out a number of ministries.
Renewed criticism from the West and threats of new sanctions might be just what Zanu-PF hardliners need to push Mugabe into an even more stubborn position on power-sharing.
In talks about the allocation of Cabinet posts Mugabe is understood to have accused the MDC of failing to secure guarantees from “their Western allies” that sanctions would be lifted once an inclusive government was formed.
With mediator Thabo Mbeki’s leverage considerably reduced after his ousting, Mugabe faces little real external pressure to honour the deal. This week a diplomat from the Southern African Development Community told the Mail & Guardian that there was “some degree of fatigue” in Africa about the Zimbabwe crisis, especially after the latest deadlock over Cabinet posts.
But Mugabe’s critics say he does not mind driving Zimbabwe further into international isolation if this means his power remains undiluted.
“If the deal fails we will remain a pariah,” said Simba Makoni, Mugabe’s former finance minister and a presidential candidate in the March election.
Western sanctions include visa bans and asset freezes on Mugabe and senior allies. Under the embargo the Zimbabwean government, public utilities and companies in which the state has interests are also unable to access credit from international institutions such as the International Monetary Front and the World Bank.