A close-quarters struggle is evolving between Barack Obama’s vengeance-seeking Democrats and Republican John McCain’s crack ground troops as ill-starred Florida gears up for the presidential election.
The mere name of the southern state still haunts Democrats, following the 2000 recount debacle that ended when Republican President George Bush was installed in the White House by the United States Supreme Court.
Obama is urging supporters to flock to early polling stations, which opened on Monday, hoping to turn a strong position in recent opinion surveys into a clear edge in votes before everyone votes en masse on November 4.
McCain, watching his electoral route to the White House narrowing as a string of battlegrounds lean towards Obama, knows a loss in Florida could potentially crush his presidential hopes.
”It is Florida, Florida, Florida, that’s for sure,” said the state’s Republican Governor, Charlie Crist, on Tuesday, adopting the famed 2000 mantra of late NBC political analyst Tim Russert.
Obama blitzed the state on Monday and Tuesday, backed up by a heavy-hitting battery of allies, including former primary foe Hillary Clinton and his wife, Michelle.
McCain was due in Florida on Thursday, and his running mate, Sarah Palin, has made several recent trips to the state to fire up the conservative base vote that twice helped Bush to the White House.
Most polls over the last week, apparently reflecting the wave of financial unease sparked by the economic crisis that further spooked Florida after a wave of mortgage foreclosures hit the state, gave Obama a small advantage.
But a new Rasmussen survey of voters in the Sunshine State on Monday showed McCain back on top by just 49% to 48% despite a huge funding disadvantage.
Obama has poured more than $10-million into the state, while McCain has spent $3-million, according to local media estimates.
The Democrat is sure to inject millions more from his $150-million September fundraising haul.
The electoral key to Florida is the corridor alongside the Interstate-4 highway from Tampa to Dayton Beach, which bisects the more conservative north of the state with the liberal south, and is home to thousands of undecided voters.
”You have to win south of I-4 by more than you lose north Florida,” said Steven Schale, Obama’s Florida state director.
Hillary Clinton, who is highly popular in Florida, and crushed Obama in the Democratic primary here in January that was voided over a scheduling dispute, said the I-4 stretch was the ”battleground of battlegrounds”.
Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, another state political sage, declared ”the I-4 corridor is the swing vote in Florida and as the I-4 corridor goes, so goes the nation”.
The Obama campaign strategy is to limit its losses in the north of the state to less than those suffered by Democrat John Kerry in 2004, and drive out the vote in the south.
Voter registrations
Democratic officials believe a flood of new voter registrations sparked by enthusiasm for Obama, especially among African-Americans, could be the path to victory.
They say they have an advantage of more than 600 000 registered voters — their highest margin ever over Republicans.
But registering voters does not necessarily turn into votes.
In 2004, Democratic officials say, 600 000 African-Americans now on the rolls did not vote. About 400 000 young and Hispanic voters also stayed away.
To get voters out, Democrats are relying on Obama’s mass rallies, spreading the word through union members, sending campaign missives into African-American churches and even using town criers.
Former US Middle East envoy Dennis Ross has been dispatched to woo Jewish voters. New York Senator Chuck Schumer, also popular with the key Democratic voting bloc, has also been in the state — home to the largest US Jewish community outside New York.
New Mexico’s Hispanic Governor, Bill Richardson, meanwhile, has been working the Hispanic community, which has been hit hard by job losses in the economic turmoil.
Republicans are, meanwhile, relying on what is universally acknowledged to be a formidable Bush-Cheney get-out-the vote operation, which confounded Democratic estimates of Republican turnout in the last two elections.
”I think the ground game is going very well here in Florida,” said Crist on a conference call with reporters.
”The Republican Party of Florida has done an extraordinary job in the get out the vote effort. The Democratic Party to their credit has done a tremendous registering effort this year.” — AFP
