Dmitry Medvedev (43) and Barack Obama (47) share a couple of things in common. Both are exceptionally young, inexperienced and almost wholly untried in their respective roles as president and president elect of the world’s two great nuclear powers.
Both have a lot to prove to their fellow citizens, to the world and to themselves.
In this context, the Russian leader’s highly aggressive ”state of the nation” speech, timed for delivery as Obama raised his fist in victory after Tuesday’s American election, can be seen as a first exploratory punch in a boxing match between rank novices.
This contest is likely to run for many rounds. It will certainly be rough and clumsy. It could turn very nasty indeed.
Medvedev’s decision to deploy short-range Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, up against the borders of Nato and the EU, looks like a rather obvious attempt to test the mettle of the American greenhorn.
Although Obama does not take office until January 20, how to respond and, more broadly, how to handle rock-bottom bilateral relations with Russia’s resurgent nationalists, are questions he cannot put off for long.
Getting Obama’s attention also appears to be part of Medvedev’s gameplan. Moscow has been complaining for years that the west, and the US in particular, ignores its concerns.
Medvedev said it again on Wednesday. Then he reeled off a litany of grievances including claims that Washington deliberately provoked last summer’s Georgian conflict, that Nato is intent on encircling his country with bases, and that planned American missile defence facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic are targeted at Russia. Hence, in his view, the need for the Kaliningrad build-up.
”The missile deployment is all of a piece with Russia planting its flag in the Arctic and [former president Vladimir] Putin going hunting bare-chested in Siberia, to, at the other end of the spectrum, active military operations in the Caucasus,” said David Clark, chairperson of the Russia Foundation think tank.
”They are saying: ‘Russia is back. We’re powerful again. We’re tough. You can’t ignore us.’ ”
Clark said he believed the Kaliningrad deployment was largely a gesture. Eastern Europeans had no more reason to fear an attack than Russia had to fear the two US bases. But in bearding Obama, and pointedly withholding public congratulations on his election triumph, Medvedev may have made a serious miscalculation.
”For economic and strategic reasons Obama may decide to scrap the missile defence plans. But Medvedev just made it harder for him to do that. Perhaps he’s trying to box him [Obama] into a corner. That would make a decision not to go ahead look like a victory for Russia,” Clark said.
The possibility that Obama might cancel the interceptor programme, which the Bush administration says is solely intended to protect against strikes by ”rogue” states such as Iran, alarms the Czechs and Poles.
Such a decision would inevitably be interpreted as a lessening of the US commitment to eastern Europe and the Baltic and Black Sea regions at a time when the Georgia crisis and disputes with Russia over ethnic minorities, energy, Nato’s enlargement, and political meddling are rekindling cold war memories.
Radek Sikorski, Poland’s Foreign Minister, said recently that Obama had told him he was concerned about the interceptor system’s effectiveness and whether it was indeed aimed at Russia. ”If he is assured that it is not directed against Russia, then he would … honour the agreements of his predecessors,” Sikorski said. All the same, doubts persist, fanned by Democrats in the US Congress who want to cut funding for the project.
Edward Lucas, author of the recently republished book The New Cold War, said Medvedev had made an interesting opening move and there was much more to come.
”It’s the first time since the Cold War that Russia has taken physical steps to back up its threats over missile defence. Medvedev’s testing Obama. And he’ll do so on other fronts too. Georgia could bubble up again. He wants to see how close Obama stands to his European allies, how he handles bilateral issues, how he plays the Iran card as the US tries to leave Iraq.”
Obama’s instinct for dialogue and consensus may be tempered by the EU’s recent experience. Europe has been bending over backwards trying to be nice, but has made little impression on Russia’s leadership, Lucas said.
If EU foreign ministers agree next week to resume strategic partnership talks with Moscow, broken off during the Georgia crisis, Russia is likely to read the move as a further sign of weakness.
Obama and Medvedev have never met. That could change next week when the Russian president travels to Washington for the G20 summit on the global economic crisis. It’s possible Obama will also attend. If so, he had better keep his guard up. – guardian.co.uk