With a cholera outbreak raging and basic services collapsing, the word in Harare for weeks has been that “something is about to happen”.
Many are convinced that the sight of uniformed soldiers looting shops this week was the beginning of that “something”. Many others are still in doubt.
Perhaps it is some sort of credit to the “Mr Invincible” image Robert Mugabe has earned in his years of clinging to power that talk of an endgame has quickly given way to speculation that it was Mugabe himself who was behind the riots, pulling the strings in a carefully planned strategy that would ultimately lead to the imposition of a state of emergency.
The riots began last Thursday, when a group of soldiers who were denied cash at a bank became violent, rampaging through downtown Harare and chasing after illegal foreign currency dealers, among the few who are always flush with cash.
Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono reacted by lifting the maximum withdrawal limits at the weekend, but the violence only worsened on Monday when the soldiers again went on a rampage, smashing store facades, looting shops, grabbing cash and cellphones and chanting songs denouncing Gono.
While Mugabe plies the senior ranks of the army with plush farms, luxury vehicles and access to foreign currency, the rank-and-file soldiers have grown increasingly disillusioned, left to struggle alongside other Zimbabweans in the daily battle to survive world-record inflation and a collapse in social services.
Because the reserve bank’s printing presses cannot keep up with inflation, access to cash is restricted and tensions in bank queues have been boiling over for months.
The National Constitutional Assembly, a political pressure group, the activists of which were among those arrested when gathering for fresh protests on Wednesday, said the army riots were “clear testimony that state security is in danger. It is a clear signal that if nothing is done in the next few days the country might degenerate into chaos.”
While Mugabe might not feel immediately threatened by the unprecedented show of dissent by members of the army, he will now at least have seen evidence of how deep and widespread resentment of his rule has become.
The last time the military top brass appeared together in public was ahead of the March election, when they warned politicians to accept election results. Earlier they declared they would not salute a leader with no struggle credentials, a threat directed at Morgan Tsvangirai, who did not participate in the country’s liberation war.
On Tuesday the generals appeared on television again, this time to warn “rogue elements” from within their ranks against engaging in further acts of violence.
Their actions were “unacceptable, deplorable, reprehensible and criminal”, Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi said. He also suggested that a hidden force was at play and that anti-government groups were attempting to “incite some members of the uniformed forces to indulge in illegal activities”.
Seemingly unperturbed by the health crisis and the public display of discontent from within the army, Mugabe was away in Doha, lecturing the world on fair trade and the hypocrisy of the global financial system.
Mugabe must be convinced that he has padded the nests of his top military generals sufficiently to trust them to prevent any threat from within their ranks. In the same news bulletin in which the army chiefs threatened their juniors, they also appeared doling out seed and farm equipment to villagers as part of an army-led farming programme they have used to amass wealth and build their own political clout.
Mugabe will also interpret it as a compliment that some of his foes believe that the military protests were an elaborate plan to stoke tensions enough to justify the imposition of a state of emergency, under which he will launch a crackdown on opponents and call off power-sharing talks with the MDC.
“I hope the demonstrations by the soldiers are genuine and that it is not a ruse to come up with an excuse to crack down against the people, or even worse,” said Dumiso Dabengwa, a former home affairs minister and a bitter Mugabe critic.
Meanwhile, there is no sign Mugabe is letting up on his crackdown on dissenting voices in the country. On Wednesday Jestina Mukoko, head of a rights group that has documented Mugabe’s excesses since the March election, was seized from her home at dawn. Police are also still holding 15 MDC activists at secret locations, despite a high court order that the prisoners be brought to court.
Mugabe is desperate to show a firm hand as he heads into the Zanu-PF party conference next week. Although he faces no threat to his party leadership this year he will want to present the picture that he has regained full control of the party after the internal divisions, which he blamed for his party’s electoral losses earlier in the year.