Amid continuing farm invasions, Zimbabwe is somehow managing to slow the decline of its agricultural sector, the country’s once-robust economic mainstay. The food outlook has improved since last year and the number of people in need of immediate food aid has fallen.
Fewsnet, the famine early warning system, said households can now afford essential grains, the prices of which are falling as supply improves. Between April and June prices for grain fell by 31%, and those for wheat went down by 15%, easing the burden.
For the first time in years Zimbabwe could be seeing a recovery in maize output. This is the result of funding from government and United Nations agencies to small-scale farmers, who have traditionally been the main maize producers.
Finance Minister Tendai Biti sees agriculture growing by 24.3% this year, anchored in a 115% increase in maize production. Biti’s upgraded economic growth forecast of 3.7% is based on this expected upturn in agriculture.
To make this happen, government will hand small-scale farmers $142-million (R1,148-billion) worth of farm inputs. UN agencies say $60-million of this has been secured.
UN-funded programmes are expected to put about 600Â 000 hectares under maize. This, with other non-funded cropping, could see output rise to 1,2-million tons, though this is still below peak production of 2,4-million tons.
There are encouraging signs that tobacco, once Zimbabwe’s main export, could at last be recovering. Output this year is expected to reach 80-million kilograms, double last year’s harvest, and the latest statistics from the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board indicate an even larger crop next year.
The chief executive of the tobacco board, Andrew Matibiri, said the seed sold for the new season was sufficient to cover 63Â 000 hectares. “If the seed is properly planted, we expect slightly more than 120-million kilograms of tobacco,” he said.
The nascent recovery in tobacco is attributed largely to the removal of restrictions on the marketing of the crop and the abandonment of the Zimbabwe dollar in favour of the United States dollar.
Although the currency reforms helped improve access to food, they have left many farmers desperately short of cash to reinvest in farming. The Grain Marketing Board, the state grain buyer, is failing to pay farmers for crops delivered to its depots.
Wilson Nyabonda, head of the Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers’ Union (CFU), which represents black large-scale farmers, said members of his union remain short of funds to lift production significantly.
“The money to put the crop into the ground is not there,” he said. The $142-million being given to small-scale maize farmers “does not take into account the commercial farmers. There is no real funding for commercial production at the moment.”
Zimbabwean banks remain under strain, unable to fund industry or support farms where insecurity remains.
Deon Theron, vice-president of the CFU, said the economy will not fully recover until stability returns to the farms. “This sector remains absolutely critical to attracting investors’ confidence. There is an urgent need to find a way to solve the problems because, if we don’t, the economy will continue to suffer.”
Despite the chaos caused by land seizures, some foreign investment remains in agriculture.
Tongaat Hulett, the South African sugar producer, is choosing to draw the positives out of the mixed picture. Its Zimbabwe operation delivered R305-million in profit to Tongaat, compared with R35-million a year earlier. Now the company is ploughing new cash into the operation to lift production to 600Â 000 tons within three years.
Tongaat is investing R70-million in two mills and R75-million more in its transport fleet.
The signs of recovery were placed in stark perspective this week by a new report by the CFU, showing the devastating effects of land seizures on the commercial farming sector.
The report shows that since land invasions started in 2000:
- Zimbabwe’s dairy herd has fallen from 187Â 000 cows to 57Â 000, and the number of beasts slaughtered annually dropped from 605Â 000 head to 180Â 000;
- Sugar production has fallen from 538Â 000 tons a year to 350Â 000 tons;
- Citrus production has more than halved from 39Â 000 tons to 15Â 000 tons a year;
- The coffee harvest has crashed from 7620 tons to 500 tons, and tea from 22Â 000 tons to 10Â 000 tons; and
- Flower production has collapsed from 18Â 000 tons to 5Â 000 tons.
Much commercial production was for export and the latest statistics from the central bank show that Zimbabwe’s agricultural exports fell 14,9% in the first half of the year.
The Coffee Growers’ Association said: “It is astounding to note that no meaningful coffee has ever been produced on a coffee farm, [after] the year of the takeover.”
The government has failed to halt farm invasions, frustrating farmers who had hoped for an end to takeovers with the unity agreement. According to the CFU, which represents white farmers, 32 farmers have been arrested in the past year for resisting expulsion, five of whom were convicted and evicted.