Namibia’s ruling party was heading on Tuesday for a big election win but results so far showed the two-thirds majority which gives it the power to change the Constitution is under threat.
Initial results from nearly 92 000 of 1,18-million registered voters in the arid state show the South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), a former guerrilla movement that led the country to independence in 1990, leading with 64%.
Swapo is widely expected to secure another five-year term following last week’s presidential and parliamentary elections. But the two-thirds majority that it has held since 1995 is less certain owing to the emergence of a stronger opposition party.
The electoral commission said the final results of last week’s voting would be published on Tuesday but counting has been subject to a series of delays.
Swapo’s sternest political challenge yet comes from the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), which split from the ruling party in 2007, and holds 12% of the votes cast.
”By any standards, it will be a landslide victory … and although it’s too early to say if Swapo will get the two-thirds, the RDP, by Namibian standards, will be a strong opposition,” said Graham Hopwood, director at the Institute for Public Policy Research.
Namibia’s politics have been dominated by Swapo since independence and opposition parties struggled to make an impact.
Altogether 72 National Assembly seats up for grabs in Namibia, one of Africa’s wealthier states because of diamond and uranium exports. In 2004 elections Swapo won 55 seats and needs to secure 48 seats to retain the two-thirds majority.
Swapo has managed to keep most of its traditional support in the central-northern regions, where 60% of the population live, but some votes went to RDP.
Presidential vote
In the presidential vote, President Hifikepunye Pohamba, who succeeded founding president Sam Nujoma, leads with 67%, with RDP’s Hidipo Hamutenya taking 12%.
Analysts said Pohamba’s popularity has been growing and the 74-year-old leader might even enjoy more support than his party, which has been battling internal disagreements.
As in other southern African countries, from Angola to Zimbabwe to Mozambique to South Africa, the former liberation movement has kept a tenacious hold on power, but it has faced a greater challenge since its internal split.
The RDP, which accused Swapo in its campaign of failing to do enough on unemployment, health and education, appeared to have taken many votes from Swapo’s other rivals and looked set to become the official opposition, political analysts said.
Counting of the results from the polls held on November 27 to 28 started slowly over the weekend because of a tendered ballot system. Under this, votes from people cast in areas where they are not registered have to be tallied with ballots cast in their respective constituencies before being published.
Observers and opposition parties alike have criticised the delays, alleging voting and counting irregularities which they say the electoral commission failed to address.
Six opposition parties said they would seek legal advice to determine if the election was legitimate.
Nico Horn, Dean of the Faculty of Law at the University of Namibia, said there were doubts about the verification process conducted by the electoral commission, with no observers and party agents present to observe the process.
”Nobody knew about the verification centres and what it means … and how can verification take place without those who did the counting to be present?”.
Lying between economic powerhouse South Africa and oil-producing Angola, Namibia has enjoyed a long period of political and economic prosperity.
But the economy in Namibia, which produces 10% of global uranium output, is expected to contract 0,6% in 2009, before recovering in 2010 on higher commodity prices and a rise in mining output. — Reuters