Europe and the United States are concerned that China may soon set a carbon target that marks a step back from its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
With just days remaining until the Copenhagen climate talks, negotiators from developed nations were hoping the world’s biggest emitter would unveil a sufficiently progressive goal to increase momentum in the US and developing nations.
But recent reports and recommendations about China’s likely target have generated fears that a climate deal could be hampered by an overly cautious initial bid.
The government in Beijing has yet to announce a goal. The closest it has come was at the UN summit in September when the president, Hu Jintao, promised to reduce the carbon intensity of China’s economy by a ‘notable margin” between 2005 and 2020.
Carbon intensity is the amount of emissions produced for every dollar of economic activity. Brazil , Indonesia and South Korea recently put hard figures on the negotiating table.
Speculation is mounting that China could do the same soon, which would then pave the way for Barack Obama to announce US targets soon after.
Most recent reports have suggested that China is considering a reduction in carbon relative to economic growth in the lower end of the 40% to 50% range between 2005 and 2020.
This would mean investing more in solar, wind, nuclear and other low-carbon energy sources, as well as improving the efficiency of the coal-fired plants that provide most of China’s electricity.
Sources at the Energy Research Institute, a Chinese government think-tank, said they recommended a carbon intensity goal of 40% to 44%. Other proposed targets offer slightly more scope.
Last month state media noted a senior government advisory body — the China Council of International Cooperation on the Environment, made up of international experts — recommended a target of 4% to 5% reductions a year until 2050. Even if confirmed, these numbers are likely to represent only an opening bid by China.
Counterparts in developed nations say they fall short of the level that might spur other nations into action.
‘Some of the numbers being bandied around seem worryingly low given China’s weight of economic growth, but we remain confident that China will ultimately offer us an emissions reduction target that represents a significant reduction from business as usual,” said a European diplomat.
The concern is that these goals do not represent much progress on the 1990 to 2005 period. ‘Only when it gets to be more than 50% then it starts to represent more hope than we have seen historically,” said the diplomat.
US negotiators believe 40% would be merely business as usual. Yu Qingtai, China’s special representative at climate talks, would not say when a figure would be announced or how high it would be, but he said even the energy-efficiency drive had produced gains equivalent to 1.5-billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
He accused rich nations, which have greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, of bad faith in asking China to do more even though they had failed to deliver on the promises made at Kyoto.
Wu Changhua, China director of the Climate Group, said a 40% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 would be a ‘huge commitment”.
Other analysts believe an annual target of more than 4.8%, equivalent to just more than 50% over 15 years, would mark significant progress. Li Yan of Greenpeace said all countries needed to be more ambitious.
‘It’s fairly sure the government has a figure in its back pocket. Whether they announce it will depend on negotiations. It will also depend on whether other developing countries, such as Brazil and India, are also ready to take their fair share of combating climate change.”
More nations’ negotiating positions are coming out into the open. Norway has led the way by promising a 40% cut of carbon emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. The United Kingdom has pledged 34%. Japan impressively raised its commitment from 8% to 25%.
Developing countries are not legally obliged to reduce greenhouse gases, but several have recently stepped up with progressive targets, including Brazil, which aims to move 38% to 42% away from business as usual, Indonesia, which said it will reduce 26% from business as usual by 2020, or even more if it receives financial and technical assistance, and South Korea, which has set a target range of 21% to 30%. —