/ 27 May 2011

Mugabe aims to live to 100

Mugabe Aims To Live To 100

Speculation about his health is greater than ever and new names are emerging as supposed front-runners in the race to succeed him, but Robert Mugabe is in no hurry to leave.

The latest politician to be touted as Zimbabwe’s heir apparent is Security Minister Sidney Sekeramayi (67), a member of Cabinet since 1980.

Zimbabwe’s Standard newspaper claimed at the weekend that he had displaced Deputy President Joice Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa in the leadership stakes. Sekeramayi, a taciturn doctor, has always been seen as a Mujuru loyalist and his ascent would be “something of a coup, an unlikely coup”, one insider said. Both Mujuru and Mnangagwa have more clout in Zanu-PF than Sekeramayi, who lost a party primary in his district in 2008.

Within Zanu-PF, concern is growing over Mugabe’s future. But he is sending the message to allies who may now be thinking of change that Zanu-PF has no future without him. And, says the 87-year-old, he feels half his age and wants to live to a hundred.

Mugabe’s succession has always been a hot topic among political observers, the media and even among his own top lieutenants. But a series of foreign trips to the Far East, allegedly for medical treatment, and images of Mugabe walking up stairs with support from aides, not to mention moving about in a golf cart at a regional summit earlier this year, has stoked speculation.

But frustratingly for his opponents, any new wave of rumours about his health is followed by the reappearance of a sprightly Mugabe to taunt his detractors.

In an interview with a government-owned paper at the weekend, Mugabe made it clear he had no plans to let go after 31 years in power and believes Zanu-PF will die without him.
“You don’t leave the party amid problems and in a situation of crisis such as we have. The party needs me and we should not create points of weakness within the party,” he told Southern Times, jointly owned by Zimbabwe and Namibia.

Introducing a new leader “might destroy the party for a while as it goes through transition”, he said. “We don’t want to take any risks.”

It is an opinion many observers share. Mugabe has been a burden to the party and the source of division, but only he has the broad appeal to keep Zanu-PF factions together. Picking Mujuru as successor would anger a faction led by Mnangagwa, a trusted and powerful ally. John Nkomo, his other deputy, may struggle to win popular support, as he is from the amaNdebele minority. Mugabe has kept all three guessing and plotting among themselves.

Another of Mugabe’s strategies has been to conjure up visions of powerful enemies that he alone can fight off. Previously, Tony Blair and George Bush have played the role of the imperialist wolves at the door. While he says David Cameron has yet to join in, William Hague, whose name he initially forgets and describes only as “the other man with the round head”, seems to be “into regime change”.

He is keenly aware of the health rumours and details his strict regime of exercise and calcium supplements.

“The doctors say that I am okay and some are surprised with my bone structure. They say they are the bones of someone who is 40. I suppose it’s the exercise,” he told Southern Times. “I also take calcium every day.”

His body told him “the counting doesn’t end at 87, at least you must get to 100”. Given Zanu-PF’s complex factional fighting, being named as a possible successor is to be handed a poisoned chalice.

Often, for their own good, those named are forced to deny publicly any ambition and declare their allegiance to Mugabe. That way Mugabe’s enforcers keep ambitions in check. However, analysts believe that Mugabe’s failure to manage succession could lead to instability should he die in office.

“The constitution is very clear on the route to take if Mugabe wakes up not there, but for this to work, Zanu-PF needs to have a clear succession plan in place,” said Eldred Masunungure, the head of the Mass Public Opinion Institute. “It is simply not there, which creates a dangerous recipe for instability.”