With three weekends of log play remaining the architects of the new Super Rugby competition must be smiling. Without question the addition of two extra spots in the play-offs has galvanised the sharp end of the tournament and given teams much more to play for.
It is not yet written in ink, but the Reds look likely to finish the league section on top of the log. The Brisbane-based unit finish against the Brumbies and Western Force, two teams that have plumbed the depths this season. The Reds should win both of those and could then afford to lose their final match against the Chiefs in Hamilton and still top the log.
But below the Reds there is enough doubt and uncertainty to turn anyone agnostic. The Blues have had a weekend off to ponder their last-minute defeat to the Stormers a fortnight ago. This week they play the Chiefs at Eden Park, knowing that defeat will see them plummet from second to fourth on the log. That’s because the fourth-placed Crusaders have a bye this week, guaranteeing them four points, while the third-placed Stormers take on the Rebels in Melbourne.
It is, of course, tempting fate to expect the Stormers to earn five points against the Rebels, but looking at the space the newest Super Rugby side inhabits at the moment, it seems fairly inevitable. The Rebels declined to take England flyhalf Danny Cipriani on tour with them to South Africa, but now he is being touted as the panacea for the side’s ills.
Rebels captain, Welshman Gareth Delve, said this week: “The thing about Danny is he’s a bloody awesome player and I think he’s got a lot to offer us.”
But Rebels assistant coach, Damien Hill, put things into perspective when he said: “The administration is talking to Danny’s management at the moment regarding his availability for this week.”
Things have come to a pretty pass when team management and player management have to formulate a plan to pick someone, anyone, for a game of rugby. Remember that the Rebels are now bottom of the log following the Lions’ remarkable last-minute win against the Highlanders last week. Is there really no one in the whole of Australia who can play flyhalf in place of a confused young man who last appeared for his side on April 30?
For once, and perhaps not for long, South African sides command the moral high ground.
The month of May has been an extraordinarily good one for our franchises. The Stormers have put their mid-season jitters aside and the Bulls have rediscovered the form that made them champions in three of the past four years.
The Cheetahs, despite being incapable of winning a lineout, nearly beat the Bulls at Loftus last week, while the Sharks found an extra gear after being reduced to 14 men against the Waratahs. Even the Lions conspired to look like a rugby team last week and, with the arrival on Wednesday of the 100-day mark to the World Cup, things are looking good for the defending champions.
After this weekend there should be a clear line dividing the top four sides from the next four, with a further line drawn in indelible ink, dividing the eighth-placed team from the ninth. Whatever happens from here on in, the Reds, Blues, Stormers and Crusaders should remain in the top four, although the order may be open to debate.
The four sides looking for the two remaining play-off spots are the Bulls, Sharks, Waratahs and Highlanders. It is impossible to say which of those teams will prevail, because the imponderables are so profuse. The Highlanders should beat the Force in Dunedin, but they managed to lose to the Lions there last week. The Bulls should beat the Waratahs at Loftus, but the Australian side are easily good enough to cause an upset.
They share many of the Bulls’ qualities, with a heavy pack, a well-organised defence and a clear tactical understanding. They have less bulk in the three-quarter line but more ideas, and the return of Berrick Barnes at inside centre alongside Daniel Halangahu will give them two good decision-makers in the midfield axis.
As for the Cheetahs against the Sharks in Bloemfontein, who can say? The Cheetahs have been a bogey side for the Sharks for years, yet the Free Staters were easily dispatched in Durban at the beginning of the campaign.
The Sharks will be without the suspended Jean Deysel, yet they welcome back Ryan Kankowski, the racehorse of the back row who has been cruelly missed in his injury-enforced absence.
Given coach Naka Drotske’s proclivities for pulling rabbits from hats, it would be tempting fate to suggest that the Cheetahs’ latest injury crisis will severely dent their hopes. They now have six back-rowers out with injury, but former Western Province flank Pieter Myburgh arrived from Europe on Thursday to help out.
But when all is said and done it looks as though the Waratahs will be the next team to fall off the bus with defeat this week. That will leave three teams looking for two spots. Bring it on.