/ 30 September 2011

Crunch time for Kyoto

Crunch Time For Kyoto

Two months before COP17, the climate change conference in Durban, the burden on South Africa to broker some kind of deal at the annual talks is growing. Although it seems increasingly unlikely that a legally binding agreement will emerge from the talks, analysts are adamant that significant progress has to be made at the conference.

South Africa is seen as a historical bridge-builder and, as the incoming president of the talks, the country will have a huge part to play in getting parties to remove negotiating stumbling blocks. It will not be easy.

Despite trust being rebuilt after the 2009 Copenhagen debacle, the old question of which countries should take what responsibility for capping emissions to the possible detriment of their economy is still very much at the centre of the talks.

Already the South African government has downplayed expectations, but silently the South Africans are hoping for a miracle. The first critical issue that has to be settled is that of the Kyoto Protocol.

The controversial treaty’s first commitment period, negotiated at the turn of the century, will expire at the end of the year. There is nothing to replace Kyoto and developing countries such as South Africa are pushing for a second commitment period.

The United States, one of the biggest role-players, wants nothing to do with Kyoto. But it is the only treaty in existence and a last-gasp second commitment to it is likely.

Last month South Africa hosted informal ministerial consultations on COP17 with the task of getting informal discussions going among ministers and to get progress on the sticky issues.

The European Union believes it is important to negotiate some kind of settlement on Kyoto’s second commitment period. But more important for the Europeans is to move towards a new legally binding agreement that includes the Americans.

France’s ambassador for climate change negotiations, Serge Lepeltier, who attended the ministerial briefings, said, although there were still areas of divergence on the post-Kyoto framework, progress had been made in recent discussions. “We as the European Union want to go further than a second commitment period,” he said.

Lepeltier also emphasised South Africa’s role at the negotiations and said the country could get the important negotiating group of China, India, Brazil and South Africa moving forwards on critical issues. “India hardened its stance at the last conference but it remains a very important part of the negotiations,” he said.

At the briefings, UN climate chief Christiana Figueres said clarity about Kyoto had to be reached in Durban. She was upbeat about the progress being made and said there was probably more convergence than divergence on critical issues. “But to solve important political issues a lot of meetings are still necessary,” she said.