/ 5 July 2013

Egypt: Second revolution sets a dangerous precedent

Egypt: Second Revolution Sets A Dangerous Precedent

Egypt has entered a volatile and potentially dangerous new phase, with the army moving swiftly and decisively against President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood to take control – though only temporarily – of the Arab world's largest country.

In Tahrir Square, the cradle of the struggle for democracy, crowds erupted in jubilation as news filtered through of the latest sensational twist in Egypt's drama, many hailing a "second revolution" after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, the defining event of the early, heady days of the Arab spring.

Egypt's powerful armed forces, presenting themselves as the guardians of stability, had grown increasingly alarmed by the polarisation and chaos of recent months, but until the last minute on July 3, a full-fledged coup seemed less likely than an attempt to browbeat a defiant Morsi and the fragmented liberal and secular opposition into a workable consensus. The army might have preferred that outcome.

General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the defence minister who was promoted by the Islamist president shortly after he entered office last summer, had given the country's squabbling politicians 48 hours to resolve their disagreements or follow a political "road map" the army would set out.

It is unclear whether preliminary talks ever had a serious chance.

Morsi, a Brotherhood veteran, was narrowly elected in a poll that was considered to be free and fair, and famously pledged to rule "for all Egyptians". Non-Islamists voted for him on the grounds that he was still preferable to the old regime fulool (remnant) candidate.

But his opponents complained almost from the start that he had not governed democratically or effectively, but had been autocratic, incompetent and had betrayed a revolution in which the Brotherhood did not play a leading role.

With tanks and troops on the streets of Cairo and reports of arrests of Brotherhood figures, there is the risk of violence. Some have warned – perhaps deliberately scaremongering – that it could take on the dimensions of Algeria after elections, which Islamists were poised to win, were cancelled by the military in late 1991. The civil war that followed claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

Egyptian Salafist and jihadi figures pledged to resist if Morsi was forced out. The Brotherhood can certainly get out its own supporters, though Morsi has reportedly called on them to resist any army move peacefully. If mobilised, its disciplined cadres could cause serious trouble.

Morsi's overthrow is a hammer blow for Egyptian Islamists, who spent the long decades of authoritarian rule under Mubarak and his predecessors building up the Brotherhood organisation and dreaming of the day when they could take power.

The worry must be that this experience will reinforce their sense of victimhood, that despite winning a free election they were betrayed and prevented from exercising legitimate power. It clearly creates a dangerous precedent.

It will be bad news too for Islamists in nearby Tunisia, in particular, where the an-Nahda party came to power in an earlier election after overthrowing another secular dictator in the first and so far most successful of the Arab uprisings. Inspired by events in Cairo, Tunisia has just acquired its own version of Egypt's Tamarod (Rebellion) campaign, which galvanised the mass support for Morsi's departure.

In an ironic twist, Syria's government – waging a bloody war that has already claimed 100 000 lives – called on Morsi to step down.

That was payback for his open support for Bashar al-Assad's enemies and a reflection of the sectarian divisions that scar the Middle East region.

The army's "road map" is for a civilian, technocratic government and a short transitional period to be followed by new parliamentary and presidential elections. That underlines its reluctance to be seen to be staging a coup and clinging to power without legitimacy, a point the United States and other Western governments will emphasise.

The speed and success of that difficult transition – in an inevitably highly charged atmosphere – will be the yardstick by which this latest chapter in Egypt's extraordinary story will be judged. – © Guardian News & Media 2013