/ 8 November 2013

Why Zimbabwe can’t invade Mozambique

Question of numbers: The full strength of the country’s army is not known.
Question of numbers: The full strength of the country’s army is not known. (Alexander Joe/AFP)

Zimbabwe's capacity to carry out its threat to intervene militarily in the conflict in Mozambique between government forces and the former rebel movement Renamo has come under scrutiny.

Analysts this week pointed to diplomatic, financial and logistical shortcomings they said would weigh on any deployment of troops.

Defence Minister Sydney Sekera­mayi this week upped the ante, saying Zimbabwe is on "high alert" and closely monitoring the situation.

His comments follow those of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Christopher Mutsvangwa, who recently told BBC's Focus on Africa programme that "it would be misguided for Renamo to bring instability and expect Zimbabwe to watch".

The Mozambique government has not asked the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or Zimbabwe, with which it enjoys a long political history, for military help.

Mozambican President Armando Guebuza has said that the solution lies in dialogue.

Mutual Defence Pact
Political observers say Zimbabwe, as an SADC member, could not take unilateral military action as this would undermine the regional body.

In 2003 SADC signed a Mutual Defence Pact that encouraged the combination of member states' military forces into a SADC standby force to assist democratically elected governments that were threatened.

"Zimbabwe can certainly act in self-defence should there be any instigation of the conflict affecting the country.

However, it will be more prudent for Zimbabwe to work through SADC and to invoke the tenets of the Mutual Defence Pact in order to ensure there is stability in Mozambique," Trevor Maisiri, the senior analyst of the International Crisis Group, said.

"Unilateral action by Zimbabwe, outside of SADC, will complicate the intervention in Mozambique, as it takes away the collectivity of action on the part of SADC, which we are currently seeing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)," he said.

If Zimbabwe were to intervene and the crisis escalated, the cost of a fully fledged war would put further strain on the treasury, which is already facing a tough juggling act.

Size of army 
The exact number of members of Zimbabwe's standing army is secret, but it is estimated to be nearly 40 000.

Army spokesperson Colonel Overson Mugwisi asked for questions about the size of the military and its operations to be brought to army headquarters in person.

The last engagement by Zimbabwe was 15 years ago, in the DRC, where it deployed about 12 000 troops.

The actual cost of the war has been heavily contested, but figures released to Parliament by then finance minister Simba Makoni in January 2000 suggested that the government had spent $200-million during the two-year intervention.

But analysts said the government had taken into consideration only food rations, salaries and medical supplies and had overlooked other costs, such as replacing old military equipment.

They estimated that an additional $281.5-million could have been spent.

Defence industries under sanctions
Equipment may be another headache for the army. Zimbabwe Defence Industries, which is the army's procurement and investment arm, has been placed under sanctions by the West for a decade, which has made procurement difficult.

Despite this embargo, China signed a pact to supply military equipment to the government in 2007 and, in April 2008, a ship, the An Yue Jiang, reportedly delivered 1 500 rocket-propelled grenades, 3 000 mortar rounds, mortar tubes, 21 000 rifles and three million rounds of AK-47 ammunition.

The military's involvement in the Marange diamond fields has provided it with the means to fund many of its operations and exercises without having to account to the treasury.

Last year the former defence minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, crossed swords with the former finance minister, Tendai Biti, over the recruitment of an additional 10 000 military personnel – costs that Biti said were not accounted for in the budget allocation for the defence ministry.

Defence received $101.4-million in last year's budget.

Zimbabwe needs to protect its trade route through Mozambique, especially the Beira pipeline, through which it imports $1.2-billion worth of fuel a year.

Previous interventions not in the national interest
McDonald Lewanika, director of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said previous military engagements had benefited the ruling elite and were not in the national interest.

"We have seen that, in the past, such military interventions, like in the DRC, are propelled less by national interest and the interests of saving lives, but inspired more by the interests of politicians and the possibilities of getting footholds into the economies of the warring countries."

Gwinyayi Dzinesa, a senior researcher for the conflict prevention and risk analysis division of the Institute for Security Studies, said Zimbabwe was not prepared to engage in a full-scale war in Mozambique.

"They will wait for an indication from Mozambique but so far it doesn't look like they will ask for any intervention and it appears that their own security forces can deal with Renamo," Dzinesa said.