A common thread seems to run through the rise and fall of Zambia’s governing parties, from Kenneth Kaunda’s liberation juggernaut, the United National Independence Party (Unip) to the current Patriotic Front (PF) and its leader, Edgar Lungu.
Having risen to the summit of political power after being elected, amid euphoric pomp and ceremony, all these parties imploded and crumbled into political oblivion on being voted out.
Not only did this happen to Kaunda’s Unip, but also to Unip’s successor, the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD), led successively by Frederick Chiluba, Levy Mwanawasa and finally Rupiah Banda, before Michael Sata’s PF stole the limelight in 2011.
Today, it is astonishing that neither Unip nor the MMD are anywhere near their former glory. In last week’s presidential elections, their candidates only managed to garner a handful of votes, compared to their bigger PF and United Party for National Development (UPND) rivals.
Questions
Could there be similarities between Zambia’s electoral trends and those of South Africa, where the governing ANC suffered a heavy setback in the recent South African local government polls at the hands of smaller parties?
Could it be that as in the case of its Zambian counterparts, the ANC’s political dominance in South Africa is by no means perpetually guaranteed, and that unless it re-invents itself to become more relevant to the expectations of a more discerning and better informed electorate, its trajectory down the slippery slope to oblivion has already begun?
These questions recall a discussion this writer had a couple of years ago with South Africa’s struggle veteran Albie Sachs in Lusaka, when he recounted some of the key moments in his career as an activist and legal practitioner.
Together, we visited the modest red brick house at plot 250 Zambezi Road in Lusaka’s Roma suburb, where many years earlier, South African struggle heroes Ray and Jack Simons had plotted the downfall of the apartheid state.
Later, we visited the nondescript building that had once housed the ANC headquarters, sandwiched along a shabby service alleyway in downtown Lusaka, which as a much younger journalist I had frequently visited to chat to Tom Sabina, the ANC spokesperson.
“The support given by Zambia to the ANC was absolutely vital to the progress that we were able to make,” Sachs said.
“But crucial in Zambia was the fact that we had our headquarters here, we could have our leadership here, we could develop policies here, we could develop international relationships here, and we could have contact with the South African underground, even with Robben Island from here. For me coming back is a political pilgrimage with very deep emotion.”
Reflecting on that discussion, I was forced to consider the fact that while the ANC could conceivably be on a downward spiral, the political tradition within which it was birthed so many years ago is an enduring part of South Africa’s political landscape.
It has something to do with the fact that in South Africa, the chance to vote came to mean so much to the majority of its citizens and was achieved at a heavy price in blood, sweat and tears.
Insufficient tactics
While the will of the people expressed in genuine, periodic and credible elections is a principle now enshrined in modern constitutions around the world, the realisation of this democratic precept is often elusive.
Zambia holds regular democratic elections. But in contrast with South Africa – at least so far – those who control state institutions and resources or organised means of bribery and intimidation in that country all too often try to manipulate election processes.
They do this by denying opponents the right to stand for office, blocking them from organising themselves to campaign for votes, restricting their access to the media, preventing the electorate from gaining the knowledge needed to make informed political choices, intimidating voters from making free political choices, and gerrymandering election districts to deny equal suffrage.
When these tactics appear insufficient to ensure victory, the perpetrators of fraud often seek to manipulate election day processes by blocking access to polling stations, denying qualified electors the right to cast ballots, arranging for illegal voting in their favour, stuffing ballot boxes, manipulating vote counts, rigging vote tabulations, announcing fraudulent results and blocking proper legal redress.
Such tactics inevitably spawn violence and political retribution, as rightful winners are prevented from assuming their elected office. Legitimately elected parties are denied their democratic mandate and the stage is set for political instability.
There is overwhelming evidence that all these abuses took place in last week’s “triple election” – for president, parliament and local government – in Zambia. After the announcement of a PF victory and another term for Lungu, the country stands on the precipice of political turmoil.
‘Biased’ news coverage
The UPND has approached the Constitutional Court for redress – but like the Electoral Commission of Zambia, the court is another supposedly independent democratic institution that many Zambians do not trust.
While many of the observer missions have yet to release their verdict on the poll, the European Union’s preliminary statement noted various violations indicating that the electoral process was deeply compromised.
For instance, noted the EU in its statement: “News coverage of the state broadcaster was biased in favour of the PF and largely excluded other parties, or only reported other parties negatively. Restrictions on private newspaper The Post constituted a serious infringement on freedom of expression during the campaign and severely limited opportunities for the opposition to access print media.”
It further noted: “Provisions and application of the Public Order Act unreasonably restricted freedom of assembly to the benefit of the ruling party, which also unduly benefited from its position as the incumbent party by misusing state resources for campaign purposes in contravention of the law, further contributing to an unlevel playing field.”
In the aftermath of the elections, events are unfolding fast amid widespread anxiety. There are sporadic reports of violence involving the burning down of houses and property belonging to opposition members and supporters across the country, in most instances instigated and perpetrated by unruly governing party thugs.
The UPND has continued to call on its members to refrain from retaliating, but if the attacks on its supporters continue to escalate, the relative political peace that Zambia has enjoyed since independence is sure to break down.
And as the UPND launches its petition against the verdict of last week’s polls, Lungu’s provisioal replacement is Speaker of the National Assembly, Patrick Matibini, who will act as interim national leader.
Handled competently and professionally, the Constitutional Court has the capacity to save Zambia’s fragile peace. Handled incompetently and with political bias, the country may degenerate into a lawless banana republic.
By comparison, South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission, which oversaw the local government polls, is almost universally seen by South Africans as competent, professional and free of party political manipulation. Testimony of this is the ANC’s acceptance of the results, despite its humiliating losses.
And this is where according to the evidence so far presented by the Zambian opposition, the Electoral Commission of Zambia appears to have sold out and betrayed the Zambian electorate.
The amaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism produced this story. Like it? Be an amaB supporter and help us do more. Know more? Send us a tip-off.