Support for the Democratic Alliance (DA) has “increased dramatically” over the course of the past week in the Western Cape, particularly amongst coloured people, according to the latest and final election poll by the Institute of Race Relations.
The institute released its final daily tracking poll this Monday. It indicated how support for political parties changed over the past week, from Saturday April 27 to Saturday May 4. The poll tracked changes nationally as well as in the hotly-contested provinces of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape.
The latest poll is the institute’s fifth in the lead up to Wednesday’s election. It shows that support for the DA in the Western Cape went from 54% on that Saturday a week ago, to 62% midway through last week and 57% at the end of the week.
Support for the ANC declined from 28% to 21% in the province. Support for the Economic Freedom Fighters remaining relatively stable, going from 7% to 5% over the same time period.
When it comes to population groups in the province, the DA saw the most increase in support from coloured people, with a big jump from 65% at the beginning of the week to 75% at the end of the week. This increase squeezed coloured support from the African Christian Democratic Party, and according to the Institute of Race Relations’ report, the ANC’s share of coloured voters has also dropped, which can account for the DA’s increase.
Another important trend recorded in the institute’s poll is that the ANC could get less than 55% nationally in these elections. In its April poll, the institute placed the ANC’s support at 49.5% nationally on a 100% turnout and 51% on a 71.9% turnout scenario. In the latest poll, the support is at 50.9% at a 54% turnout.
When it comes to Gauteng, black voters have shown decreased support for the ANC, from 58% at the beginning of the week to 51% at the end while white Gauteng voters remained at 2%. In contrast, the EFF has enjoyed growing support among black voters from 17% to 21% while having 0% white support in the province.
The latest poll also found that the EFF is up “significantly” nationally, relative to the 2014 elections.
According to Gareth van Onselen, head of politics and governance at the institute, Gauteng seems set for a coalition.
“Gauteng is one place where a coalition seems most likely especially because this year has brought problems for the ANC such as load shedding and the revelations at the commission of inquiry into state capture,” he said.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC’s support declined over the week but increased slightly on the final day. According to the institute, this “slight uptick” suggests that the ANC “may be able to push over the 50% mark in the final few days of the election”. Support for the DA and EFF grew steadily over the week, while the IFP remained stable at around 10%.
Black voter support in the province decreased from 57% to 53% for the ANC, and increased from 12% to 16% for the EFF.