/ 25 October 2023

New poll predicts 45% support for the ANC in 2024 elections

Iec Election Poster 5483 Dvcopy
(Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)

Support for the ANC appears to be continuing to drop ahead of the 2024 national and general elections, with a new survey by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) pegging its potential share of the vote next year at 45%.

The SRF report on South Africa’s political state of play for October shows a decline in support for the governing party in a sample of about 1 500 people in polls it conducted in March 2023 and in July 2022.

It is the latest in a number of opinion polls conducted by research bodies ahead of the elections, in which the ANC faces the potential of losing its majority and being forced into a coalition government.

The ANC took 57% of the vote nationally in 2019, down from 62% of the vote in 2014 elections, a trend that continued at local government level in 2021.

According to the latest report, 45% of respondents indicated that they would vote for the ANC, if the elections were to take place today, under a voter turnout of 66%.

This was a drop in support from both March this year (52%) and from July 2022, when 50% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC.

During the same period, the Democratic Alliance (DA) gained support, polling 31% this month, compared with 24% in March and 25% in July last year, while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) grew from 2% last July to 6% in March, where its support remains.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) also dropped support, from 12% in July last year to 9% this month, although the party polled better than it did in March, when only 6% of respondents said they would vote for it.

According to the SRF, a 56% turnout would not change the outcome for the DA, which also polled 31% of support among respondents under this scenario. 

The ANC did a little better with a lower turnout, getting 46%, as did the EFF (10%) while support for the IFP remained constant.

In its findings, the SRF said data indicated that ANC support levels “appear to have slipped somewhat relative to July 2022 and March 2023”.

“DA support levels appear to have lifted over that same period as has support for the IFP. EFF support appears to be pinned near the 10% mark,” the SRF said.