The South African Reserve Bank has warned of an upside risk to the inflation outlook
This is the lowest reading for inflation in South Africa since April 2021
This comes as inflation eased to 4.4% in August, below the midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target band
The consumer price index rose 5.6% year-on-year in February and was at 1.0% month-on-month
World food and fuel costs have dropped but grocery prices at local supermarkets remain unaffordably high
The inflation rate eased to 4.7%, the lowest since August 2021
Consumer inflation is expected to remain close to the central bank’s 6% ceiling, amid war-induced oil price rally
Elevated inflation has become a stubborn feature of the global economy’s recovery from the Covid-19 slump and central banks have been forced to react
Critics have said the repo rate hike will jeopardise already sluggish economic growth, but others say the gradual increase will have little effect
The decision to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points comes in the wake of red-hot inflation in advanced economies and fears policymakers will start to dial back on accommodative measures
Global inflation has surprised on the upside, which may factor into whether the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee decides to raise the interest rate on Thursday
Inflation rose well beyond the Reserve Bank’s midpoint target in August
In South Africa, a strong trade surplus, buoyed by robust commodity prices, will cushion our economy against pressure arising from US policy
Food inflation was unchanged at 6.7% in July, but remained elevated on continued upward pressure from prices for meat and the oils and fats category.
In November inflation for goods increased by 5.3% year-on-year, from 5.1% in October, according to Stats SA
Last week, the rand rebounded sharply following lower-than-expected CPI figures from the US as well as a decline in US stocks
Complex factors influence the prices of electricity, petrol and water, but the state still has wiggle room
Fuel prices have been steadily increasing since April due to a combination of higher global oil prices, higher fuel taxes and a weakening rand
The PSA which represents 238 000 members is sticking to its demand for 10% raises across the board and balloted its members this week towards a strike
Public sector unions fear that the new minister won’t keep old promises
The SARB has managed to keep within its mandate to keep inflation at low levels.
Stats show that the prices of some goods have declined since January — meat is down and,
for the sweet tooth, so is custard.
South Africa has come in third on Bloomberg’s misery index, a list of most painful economies in which to work and live, after Venezuela and Argentina.
SA’s data diary is full this week with updates on it’s current account, inflation, mining, manufacturing and retail sales over the coming days.
The big item on this week’s domestic data docket is South Africa’s latest growth figures. Here is your guide.
Over the coming days, South Africa will release unemployment, money supply, credit extension and trade figures.
President Jacob Zuma will give his State of the Nation address this week, while elsewhere investors will focus on eurozone inflation updates.
The currency has rebounded in anticipation of inflation data and higher than expected numbers could spell an end to the rand’s weakness.
A lower-than-expected inflation increase means there is less chance of a repo rate hike in the next quarter, say analysts.
Monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve and SA Reserve Bank will keep economists and investors on the edge of their seats this week.
Stock markets, which have been pushing to record levels as central banks flooded the world with cash, stumbled last week.
New weightings show that oil and electricity will continue to dictate the inflation trajectory.