/ 29 October 2024

Can COP29 bridge the climate finance gap? South Africa sets ambitious goals

Dion George
New Environment Minister Dion George. (OJ Koloti, Gallo Images)

South Africa will push for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance to be set at $1.3 trillion annually at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month, according to Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Minister Dion George.

In 2009, developed countries agreed to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries, according to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In 2015, under the Paris Agreement, a legally binding treaty on climate change, “parties agreed to extend this goal out to 2025 and to set a new finance goal, from a floor of $100 billion per year, for after 2025 taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries”.  

Speaking on Monday during national consultations ahead of COP29, where he outlined South Africa’s negotiating mandate, George said of the quantum of the NCQG: “It’s very complicated in terms of finances.” He noted that while developed countries were meant to contribute $100 billion a year, “they did not do that”. 

“I have raised the issue and said, ‘Well, even if it was $100 billion that was given, it’s certainly not enough.’ Our view is that at least $1.3 trillion is required,” the minister said.

“Now, of course, getting the developed country economies to actually contribute what they’re supposed to is hard because what’s happened is that there has been a move towards the right, so it’s more difficult for countries to contribute.”

He had asked for honesty from some countries, who “shall remain nameless” for now.

“You must say if you’re going to contribute, do it and put it in the bank and then you can add it on the spreadsheet — it’s not hard. If you’re not going to, then say ‘no’, and we know it’s not coming, and we can make another plan. South Africa is good at making a plan,” he said.

George said COP28 had marked a pivotal moment in international climate diplomacy “as we transitioned from negotiating the Paris Agreement to implementing its commitments”.

This year’s conference presents one of the final opportunities for countries to signal their intentions for new and enhanced nationally determined contributions (NDCs), efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change, ahead of the 2025 deadline for the second NDC cycle.  

“These plans will determine whether we collectively fulfil the ambitions set out in the Paris Agreement. Therefore, COP29 must build consensus, drive momentum and ensure that every nation is on a sustainable path toward a net-zero economy,” George said.

The incoming COP29 presidency has set ambitious priorities, he said. “A two-day summit at the start of the conference will bring together global leaders to raise awareness and accelerate climate action. Beyond the summit, the presidency is finalising the NCQG, a matter of great importance for developing economies like ours.

“Moreover, there is a pressing need for large-scale financial support to enable developing economy nations to meet their climate targets and progress toward sustainable, low-carbon development.”

The current financing mechanisms had proved insufficient in scale and effectiveness, highlighting the urgency for a new model, George said. COP29 presents an opportunity to advocate for innovative and improved financial frameworks that can mobilise substantial resources more efficiently. 

He said it was crucial that COP29 accelerates the application of financial, technical and capacity-building resources that will enable developing countries to meet the conditional targets outlined in their NDCs and national adaptation plans.

“For South Africa and other developing economies, these resources are instrumental in our efforts to mitigate climate risks, enhance resilience and pursue inclusive, sustainable development,” George said.

The NCQG must provide a clear and ambitious quantification of the financial support needed by developing-economy countries to implement their climate commitments and development plans — including NDCs, national adaptation plans, low-emission development strategies, and other relevant policy frameworks, as well as the key multilateral goals endorsed since Glasgow. 

“This goal should also reflect inclusive just transition pathways, aligned with each country’s nationally determined socio-economic development priorities.”

A successful COP outcome reasserts global solidarity to implement commitments and obligations already undertaken, said Pemy Gasela, the chief director for international climate change relations and reporting at the department of forestry, fisheries and the environment. 

“The pursuit of balanced outcomes should be understood in the context of 1.5°C pathways and the importance of sustainable development and poverty eradication in the transitions,” Gasela said.

COP29, she said, must be a “real finance COP” that delivers an ambitious and outcome-based NCQG that supports developing countries’ transition to low-carbon and climate-resilient development.

“The quantum of mobilisation and provision for the new goal should be commensurate with the ambition of action. COP29 outcomes must also redress the adaptation finance imbalance. South Africa must focus on implementation, and the means to facilitate that, at COP29.” 

South Africa planned to submit its new NDC in June next year, she said.

In the 2024 edition of its emissions gap report last week, the UN Environment Programme said nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of NDCs — and back this up with rapid action — or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years.

Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. The report found that failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6°C to 3.1°C over this century. This would have debilitating effects on people, economies and the planet.

To avoid the present trajectory of a temperature increase far beyond 2°C for this century, nations must use COP29 as a “launchpad” to increase ambition and ensure the new NDCs collectively promise to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. 

“They must then follow up with rapid delivery of the commitments, building on actions taken now … It remains technically possible to get on a 1.5°C pathway, with solar, wind and forests holding real promise for sweeping and fast emissions cuts,” the report said. 

To deliver on this potential, sufficiently strong NDCs would need to be backed by a whole-of-government approach, measures that maximise socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, enhanced international collaboration that includes reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action and a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment, the report said.

G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would “need to do the heavy lifting”.

G20 member states, minus the African Union, accounted for 77% of emissions in 2023. “The addition of the African Union to the G20, which more than doubles the number of countries from 44 to 99, brings total emission up to only 82% — highlighting the need for differentiated responsibilities between nations.”

The members were off track to meet even current NDCs, meaning the largest emitting members would need to dramatically increase their action and ambition now and in the new pledges, the report said. 

“Stronger international support and enhanced climate finance will be essential to ensure mitigation and development goals can be realised fairly across G20 members and globally.”

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