Emissions are still climbing. In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3%, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent — a faster rate of growth than in 2023 and more than four times the annual average of the 2010s.
A decade after the Paris Agreement united countries behind the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, the latest Emissions Gap report from the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) delivers a sobering message: global efforts remain off target.
Despite new pledges and some policy progress, the world is still heading toward dangerous levels of warming and a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
The report finds that if all current national climate plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – are fully implemented, global temperature rise by 2 100 is now projected at 2.3°C–2.5°C, only slightly lower than last year’s estimate of 2.6°C–2.8°C.
If nations follow only their current policies, the rise could reach 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C in 2024.
That slight improvement is less encouraging than it sounds. Methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the United States’ upcoming withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle, Unep noted.
The underlying message is clear, it said. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.
Unep warns that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, within the next decade. Bringing temperatures back down will demand faster, deeper and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
Each year of delay increases the risks of irreversible climate impacts and greater dependence on uncertain and costly carbon removal methods, it warned.
Unep’s executive director, Inger Andersen, described the findings starkly, warning that nations have “had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target.”
Progress, she said, “is nowhere near fast enough,” although solutions are already within reach, from rapidly expanding renewables to tackling methane emissions.
“Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future,” she urged.
According to the report, by September this year, only 60 countries, representing 63% of global emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs with mitigation targets for 2035.
This limited participation underscores a growing “implementation gap” that even existing 2030 targets are not on track to be met, the report said.
Emissions are still climbing. In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3%, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent — a faster rate of growth than in 2023 and more than four times the annual average of the 2010s.
The increase spanned all major sectors and gases. While fossil fuels remained the dominant driver, deforestation and land-use change played a major role, particularly among G20 countries, excluding the African Union, which together account for 77% of global emissions.
Among the six largest emitters, the European Union was the only one to reduce emissions in 2024. India and China saw the largest absolute increases, while Indonesia recorded the fastest relative growth. Land-use and forestry emissions rose 21%, accounting for more than half of the global increase.
Seven G20 members – Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – have submitted new 2035 targets, while three others – China, the European Union, and Türkiye – have announced their plans. However, none have strengthened their 2030 targets.
If fully implemented, these pledges could cut G20 emissions by about four gigatons of CO₂ equivalent below 2030 levels. Yet compared with current policies, the reductions amount to only 2.8 gigatons, far short of what is needed, the report said, cautioning that some of the new pledges are no more ambitious than existing policies.
Policy shifts in China and the US highlight contrasting trajectories. China’s emissions are now expected to peak around 2025, driven by booming renewable energy growth, before declining modestly by 2030.
In contrast, US emissions are projected to rise by one gigaton by 2030 due to recent policy reversals. Collectively, the G20 is not on track to meet its 2030 pledges, with a gap of 2 to 4 gigatons between promises and likely outcomes, the report said.
Even with all new NDCs implemented, the global emissions gap – the difference between projected emissions and the levels needed to meet temperature goals – remains wide.
By 2030, full implementation of unconditional NDCs still leaves a 12 gigaton gap for the 2°C pathway and a 20 gigaton gap for the 1.5°C pathway. Adding conditional NDCs reduces this by only about two gigatons.
For 2035, the new pledges narrow the gap slightly compared to last year, by about 6 gigatons for the 2°C goal and 4 gigatons for 1.5°C, but the shortfall remains substantial. Even in the best case, 2035 emissions would still exceed the 1.5°C pathway by 23 gigatons.
The report stresses that rapid action can make a tangible difference. Strengthening mitigation (reducing emissions) from current policies to conditional NDCs could lower projected warming by 0.5°C, while fully achieving all net-zero pledges could reduce it by another 0.4°C.
Under current policies, the planet is on track for around 2.8°C of warming. Full implementation of unconditional NDCs would lower that to 2.5°C, conditional NDCs to 2.3°C, and the most optimistic scenario – combining all NDCs and net-zero pledges – to 1.9°C.
Still, global warming is now hovering near 1.5°C and is expected to exceed it soon. The Paris Agreement goal remains both scientifically and morally essential.
Every fraction of a degree matters: each additional 0.1°C brings rising losses, health risks, and inequalities, especially for the poorest communities, and increases the danger of triggering irreversible climate tipping points.
Unep emphasises that accelerated mitigation would bring significant co-benefits, stimulating economic growth, job creation, energy security and public health while aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals.
Technologies such as wind and solar are cheaper and expanding faster than expected, showing that solutions already exist. What is missing is the political will, international cooperation and financial support – particularly for developing nations – to deploy them at the necessary scale, it said.
Every fraction of a degree of global warming matters, the report said. “Each additional 0.1°C of global warming escalates damages, losses and adverse health impacts already experienced at current warming levels, disproportionately affecting the poorest and most vulnerable, including women, children and indigenous communities.
“With the carbon budget nearly depleted, almost every ton of CO2 [carbon dioxide] emitted from today on needs to be removed from the atmosphere in the future to bring warming back to 1.5°C, entailing substantial costs and high risks.”
The report warned that each incremental increase in global warming increases the likelihood of triggering climate tipping points, such as a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, leading to abrupt and irreversible changes. It is “highly unlikely that all risks and hazards will reverse proportionately if global warming is returned to 1.5°C after a period of overshoot”.
The fundamental ingredient for progress towards the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement remains unchanged: immediate and stringent emission reductions, the report said.
Accelerated emission reductions require overcoming policy, governance, institutional, and technical barriers, the unparalleled increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture.
“The new NDCs and current geopolitical situation do not provide promising signs that this will happen, but that is what countries and the multilateral processes must resolve to affirm collective commitment and confidence in achieving the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.”