/ 10 January 2025

Ramifications of the US recognising Somaliland as a state

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A Somaliland police officer gives directions to voters in front of a tent operating as a polling station during the 2024 Somaliland presidential election in Hargeisa on November 13, 2024. (Photo by LUIS TATO/AFP via Getty Images)

“I would hate to see the Red Sea bottled up on both ends by people who might not necessarily be or remain our friends.”

This statement was made by former US president Dwight Eisenhower in 1959, three years before Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia abrogated a federal treaty and amalgamated Eritrea with Ethiopia. 

Eisenhower’s statement seemed to be a preemptive endorsement of Ethiopia’s annexation of Eritrea because of the latter’s value at the time in the US’s global strategy. The president also appreciated Ethiopia’s role in the Korean War. 

Incoming US president Donald Trump’s rationale for recognising Somaliland, if he does, would not be vastly different from the one Eisenhower, in effect, used for Eritrea. China might also be tempted to use the same logic in the Horn of Africa. 

Should Trump recognise Somaliland, as has been reported in the US and United Kingdom, it would be because, among other things, he wanted a military base in one of the best natural harbours Africa has, the port of Berbera. 

Trump is not alone in seeking to recognise Somaliland. US congressman Scott Perry introduced a Bill last month calling for recognition of the territory. If the US recognises Somaliland, other countries will probably follow suit.

China has a military base in neighbouring Djibouti.

Apart from adding an extra layer of complexity to the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, Trump’s recognition of Somaliland would fuel Sino-American rivalry in that region.

Colonial roots

In 1991, the Somali Republic (Somalia), which was created in 1960, split into Somaliland (a former British colony) and Somalia (a former Italian colony). Somalia does not recognise the secession of Somaliland.

Also in 1991, Eritrea, which was created and so named by Italy in 1890, seceded from Ethiopia.

Somaliland seceded from a union with greater Somalia, to which it had originally consented, but Eritrea seceded from a union with Ethiopia that had been imposed upon it. In the case of the Somali Republic, the union of the former British and former Italian territories was an attempt to reject European colonial boundaries. 

In the case of Eritrea, its annexation into Ethiopia was an attempt to substitute European colonial boundaries with indigenous imperial control. Given this, what would Trump’s recognition of Somaliland mean for the key stakeholders?

US and Somaliland

Since 2002, the US has operated Camp Lemonnier, a naval base in what was French Somaliland; Djibouti, as it is known today, is a tiny country sandwiched between Somaliland, Eritrea and Ethiopia. This means the US will get a strategic prize (vis-à-vis China) in return, should Trump recognise Somaliland.

It would also mean that, if all goes well, Somaliland could be on the verge of regaining statehood. For more than two decades, the Republic of Somaliland has maintained relative peace (unlike its conflict-ridden neighbour Somalia), has formed governments and has held periodic democratic elections. 

In most places in Africa, less than a decade after independence, the basic principles of democracy have been ignored. Unfortunately for Somaliland, the international community has been reluctant to recognise it as a legitimate state.

States need international recognition just as humans need oxygen to survive. That Somaliland has not only survived without international recognition for more than 30 years, but thrived in the international system, is fascinating. 

One more thing that makes the experience of Somaliland perplexing has to do with the neighbourhood in which it strove to consolidate its democratic institutions. According to the rating by Freedom House (2024), Somalia, Djibouti and Ethiopia score lower (meaning they are less democratic) than Somaliland.

China, Eritrea and Taiwan

Should Trump recognise Somaliland, China might seek to counter by looking for an alternative option for a military or naval base in another relatively new Red Sea-bordering state. Eritrea is an ideal candidate.

China-Eritrea relations are already cordial. In fact, Eritrea’s leader, Isaias Afwerki, received military training in China in the early 1960s at the start of Eritrea’s 30-year war of liberation with Ethiopia.

If China gets a military or naval base in Eritrea, in response to the US’s base in Somaliland, it would in some ways be reminiscent of the time from 1952 to 1974 when the US, at the height of the Cold War, operated defence installations in Eritrea. 

In 1952, Eritrea had federal status in Ethiopia but the territory was “re-unified” with Ethiopia in 1962 — with tacit US support. In other words, should China decide to pursue an alternative base in Eritrea, the logic used by the US vis-à-vis Eritrea could retain some validity for China, too.

The US abandoned its military communications base in Eritrea when it became less useful because of the advent of satellite technology.

Although Somaliland already has excellent relations with Taiwan, extra complications could arise for China’s diplomacy in the Horn of Africa regarding Taiwan if Trump should recognise Somaliland. This is a result of the possibility that the recognition will prompt the newest state in the Horn of Africa to upgrade and formalise its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. 

Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister, Francois Wu, visited Somaliland on 12 December. The newly formalised ties between independent Somaliland and Ethiopia could, in turn, elevate the profile of the bilateral relations between Somaliland and Taiwan, at least in Africa. This fear perhaps explains China’s strong opposition to any such diplomatic manoeuvres by both Taiwan and Somaliland. 

As Mai Ning, the spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, put it last month: “China firmly opposes mutual establishment of official institutions or any form of official exchanges between Taiwan authorities and Somaliland.”

Ethiopia and Somalia

Should Trump recognise Somaliland, it would be a win for Ethiopia because it, too, could quickly follow suit and gain access to the sea through the port of Berbera. Over the past 30 years, Ethiopia’s leaders have aimed to achieve that in return for diplomatic recognition of Somaliland but could not do so for fear of backlash, particularly from the African Union and the United Nations. 

The recently signed memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland was also designed to set the stage for this goal. Ethiopia and Somalia are at loggerheads over this memorandum.

But China-Ethiopia relations are strong enough to withstand Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland.

UAE, Turkey and Egypt

The United Arab Emirates will be on the winning side, should Trump recognise Somaliland. It is already supportive of Somaliland’s independence and its recognition by other countries. 

Turkey would incur diplomatic cost, as would Egypt, to a larger extent. The bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Turkey will be tested, if Ethiopia recognises Somaliland. Indeed, Turkey has been engaged in an exercise of what could be called diplomatic miscegenation in the region. In December, it brought together the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia, in Ankara, with a view to helping them resolve their differences. It favours the unity of Somalia and Somaliland and sees itself as a friend of both countries. 

Egypt’s historical machinations to undermine Ethiopia are well known. But they have intensified in recent times as the country seeks to leverage closeness to pressure Ethiopia over the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt had initially attempted to do this through Sudan, which has descended into a seemingly endless civil war. Its diplomatic infatuation with Somalia in the last few months is a direct consequence of this broad strategy.

There is an element of irony in Egypt’s misfortune, should Trump recognise Somaliland, because it was Trump himself who openly suggested in October 2020, during his first term as president, that Egypt might blow up the dam.

In the final analysis, Somaliland must be seen in the broader context of the contiguities of geography and the continuities of history that have shaped and re-shaped the alignment of forces among the unequal regional players in the Horn of Africa. 

Should Trump recognise Somaliland, it will also be a catalyst for great power competition in the region. After all, Somaliland has enormous strategic value, including proximity to the world’s major shipping routes and oil reserves.

Dr Seifudein Adem is a research fellow at JICA Ogata Research Institute for Peace and Development in Tokyo, Japan.

20 Replies to “Ramifications of the US recognising Somaliland as a state”

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  2. China, along with the failed state of Somalia, is
    engaged in a proxy war with Somaliland in a futile attempt to delay or derail the anticipated and most probably unstoppable move of the US to engage with Somaliland. I am perplexed with some of the comments made by certain individuals who appear to be surviving in the dark ages of tribal led institutions. They should know better that Somaliland was never part of Somalia and I challenge them to produce a single document that is legally ratified, and/ or enacted in to law for the 1960” union”
    It does not make any sense to try and make excuses to lump the failed state of Somalia with Somaliland where the rule of law and democracy prevails in the horn of Africa. We are in the 21ST century and no one can hoodwink the civilised societies to accept fake ideas or comments.

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  4. Abdirahman M. Ahmed (Research Director - Afro-Asia Institute for Strategic Studies - Kenya)Abdirahman M. Ahmed (Research Director - Afro-Asia Institute for Strategic Studies - Kenya),

    Breaking up African countries in order to promote western neo-colonial scramble into Africa!

    The fake & bogus storyline promoted by conflict-entrepreneurs and warmongers lobbyists to support the treacherous lies of few criminal secessionists is at odds with the political and social reality of the Somalia northern region called “Somaliland”.

    In that region, there are five significant Somali clans living in four different geographical areas that make up the Somaliland region of Somalia.

    Approximately 55% of Somaliland’s total area is made up of the Eastern Regions of Sool and Sanaag, which are primarily populated by clans that have made the conscious and unanimous decision to support the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia. These clan under the banner of SSC-Khaatumo have rejected Somaliland’s authority by force and are not under its jurisdiction.

    The clan living in the Western Region of Awdal (more than 25% of Somaliland’s total area), have always refused to break away from Somalia and are overwhelmingly against the secessionist agenda pushed by few traitors. The present government in Hargeisa has militarily occupied the region by force as a result of their opposition to Somaliland’s unilateral claims and have committed many documented massacres of civilians.

    The Central Region (Hargeisa-Berbera-Burco) is where the main force behind the secessionist movement is located and is the area inhabited by the Isaack clan. But even in this area, the vast majority of the people oppose Somaliland’s independence from Somalia, which further calls into question the legitimacy of the secessionist agenda.

    This mosaic of opposition clearly demonstrates that Somaliland’s secessionist ambitions are far from being representative of the broader population in the region, and it’s rather a foreign agenda promoted by westerns interests.

    The questions every concerned citizen anywhere on the globe should ask himself before buying or falling into the cheap propaganda of these so-called “intellectuals” are:
    • What is the hidden agenda of these agents of chaos and merchants of conflicts, who are disregarding facts on the ground and are promoting a false narrative that undermine Somalia’s sovereignty?
    • Why are these paid agents so adamant to break-out an African sovereign country with their baseless lies?
    • Why would these warmongers promote the destabilization of the Horn of Africa region by pushing the establishment of an illegal Israeli military base of the usurping zionist entity with the aim of militarizing the Red Sea?

    If these neo-colonial agents of chaos and destruction are not stopped in their quest to dismantle a sovereign country such against the majority will of its people, what will stop them to continue doing the same division and dismembering others African countries where secessionist grievances exist?

    Africa’s stability depends on adherence to the AU’s sacrosanct principles, which have long discouraged endless separatist ambitions in favor of peaceful coexistence within established borders.

    Breaking this norm would plunge the continent into uncertainty, undoing decades of progress toward regional integration and cooperation and opening the door for a new dark age of neo-colonial scramble into Africa!

    Abdirahman M. Ahmed
    Research Director
    Afro Asia Institute for Strategic Studies (https://afroasiainstitute.org/)

    • Thanks, Abdirahman, you nailed it with the facts. If a one-clan enclave secessionist is recognized as an independent state, the situation will worsen, considering the rivalry of clan politics. Take Ceerigaabo city, for example, where secessionists displaced over 50,000 people from their homes just a few weeks ago.

  5. Thank you for your excellent analysis for political ramifications reshaping history of the horn.
    Somaliland achieved a lot without help of world communities. Peace, Democracy, political stability and certain extent some developments. But, there are many enemies who are constantly fighting against the stability and peaceful development of Somaliland.
    Somalia is one that splits five entities and Mogadishu that no one communicates with the rest and whole world worked for Somalia, spent time , wealth of advice, peace keeping and Trillions of US dollars last 34 yrs but failed miserably. The only thing that people of Somalia can agree is against the recognition of Somaliland. The second one is Al Shabab, so far Somaliland achieved great successes to stop infiltrating into the territory but there is a great deal of threat to the country. It needs security, intelligence cooperation with neighboring countries, money and resources.
    Lastly, the greatest threat to the existence of Somaliland is CHINA! China is working so hard to destabilize and at the end dismantle Somaliland unless US and other nations agree to recognize very soon Somaliland as a full nation. Look two days ago Chinese Ambassador to Somalia was in Garowe meeting there with some Somaliland tribal Chiefs and presented material Aids and may be some weapons too.to creat tribal war within Somaliland tretory and undermine the peaceful coexistence.Imagine that how important project it’s to Communist China to destroy the only peaceful and Democratic country in the whole region of Horn of Africa.
    It’s clear that Communist China is against the democracy and freedom also Communist China is against US interests and trying hard to prevent US to have a foothold in the red sea and gulf of Aden. Communist China is working hard and fighting tooth and nail to unseat USA from the superpower status, Communist China is also working so hard to unseat US dollars from being the world’s reserve currency and Finally Communist China is in a mission to destroy all the natural resources of Africa to supply It’s industry requirements and leave Africa deceases and bankruptcy.

    The US recognition of Somaliland is win win situation. US getting geopolitically most important location,Berbers port and long runway airport that located in the gulf Aden and Somaliland in return gets recognition, development, peace and prosperity.

    • its not true to project Somaliland, as a peaceful region, contrary to the reality. Somaliland is in active war will all their neighbors, DDS, SSC and sool. Imagine Somaliland will be recognized international community, for sure it will become a heaven of civil wars. The main reason why Somaliland involves wars within its regions? its attributed thrust of blood of its neighbors to revenge the regime of Said Bera. In 2023 Somaliland Military had killed over 5000 people in Lasanood and nearly 1.5 million of their livelihoods. These atrocities are well documented by UN human rights group and International Organization, as a result of Somaliland killings the ex president & his adviser cannot travel outside Somaliland. Therefore, its unwise US to recognize Somaliland, as independent nation. If US recognize it, Somaliland will never became member United Nations, IMF and World Bank because China will block and the end US will lose the Berbera Port, as its a Somali territory, ultimately China will take over the Berbera port, as Ethiopia is BRIC member and will lose Somalia where spend Billion of US treasury.

  6. Thank you for this amazing analysis of horn of Africa

    Somaliland truely deserve international recognition as they did alot without international recognition

    • The US cannot be stopped from recognizing Somaliland because it is a peaceful, democratic country
      and has elected six presidents.
      The Chinese government wants to destroy Somaliland, so the US government should recognize Somaliland immediately.

  7. Thank you for sharing this brilliant analysis of the next face of the horn of Africa and the pros and cons what might happen should America go ahead with its plan of re-recognising soamliland.
    Somaliland is much better than countries who have been recognised where somalia is the heartland of terrorists and mafia group who are dressed as a politician and have been providing the word with fabricated information about bringing change to Somalia in order to continue with their corruption plans.

  8. The ONLY justification Norther Regions Somalia (ex- British Somaliland) has to secede from Southern Regions of Somalia (Italian Somaliland) is that Northern Regions were colonized by Uk while Southern Regions were colonized by Italy and Northern Regions were shelled in 1988 by Southern Regions!
    Unfortunately, current Hargeisa Breakaway indiscriminately shelled Lasanod for nine (9) months to force Sool, Sanag, & Ayn Regions (SSC) of the Ex-UK Regions of Somalia (aka British Somaliland) which resulted the death of over thousand unarmed civilians, injured over four thousand, and displaced three hundred thousands (300’000) from Lasanod.
    Recognition of Somaliland Administration is “ an international recognition & endorsement of Somaliland’s atrocities & the crime against humanity in the Security Council’s record between December, 2022 to August 25, 2023 in Lasanod of SSC Khaatumo Regions!
    More interestingly, because of “Somaliland’s” irrational clannish policy of “Somaliland” they lost control of over fifty (50%) of the ex- British Somaliland landmass to Sool, Sanag, & Ayn (SSC) Administration on August 25, 2023!!!
    Thus, the reality on the ground is very different from the “Narrative” circulating in the Social Media and is led by “Paid Agents” or they have been feed with lies by “one clan gang in Hargeisa of the so called Somaliland”!

    • C’est du imagination du clan darod les siadiste vaincus génocidaire des issak qui fait des propagande pour nuire l’image du somaliland, la seule démocratie de la corne de l’Afrique. Les masques sont tombés et l’histoire juge les hommes. Le somaliland est une puissance régionale avec son port ultra moderne de berbera c’est qui a fait pleurer beaucoup des ennemis d’hier lors de la guerre civile en Somalie 1988-1991. Allah récompense les bienfaiteur et le déclin embrasse les orgueilleux et les criminels.

  9. The ONLY justification Hargeisa has to secede from Mogadishu is that Hargeisa is colonized by Uk while Mogadishu is colonized by Italy!
    Secondly, Hargeisa was shelled in 1988 by Mogadishu. Unfortunately, Hargeisa indiscriminately shelled Lasanod for nine (9) months to force Sool, Sanag, & Ayn Regions (SSC) of the Ex-UK Regions of Somalia (aka British Somaliland) which resulted the death of over thousand unarmed civilians, injured over four thousand, and displaced three hundred thousands (300’000) from Lasanod.
    More interesting lost control of over fifty (50%) of the ex- British Somaliland!
    Entertaining Somaliland’s recognition is a receipt for new endless civil war and the already the most troubled region of Africa, the Horn Africa.
    This can be encouraged only those who enjoy or has reasons to prolong the current situation in the Horn of Africa particularly, Somalia & Somalia!!!

    • The conflict in Sool region is a proxy war instigated by ex-Italian Somalia to blackmail Somaliland and force into endless negotiations. Because of the conflict, Al Shabab now operates in the area according to U.S. State Department. The international community should support Somaliland to reclaim this region in order to deny terrorists a new operational bases inside Somaliland

  10. Somaliland deserves international recognition. It will change a lot about the Red Sea and the Aden Sea and maritime security.

  11. Republic of Somaliland ( long life Somaliland )
    A real independent state.

  12. Somaliland claimed back its independence Somalia, which it had originally consented, because of various factors among which include governance+ genocidal war by Siad Barre. What makes Somalia lame to its claim of sovereignty in the arena of in’l law is the failure of the leaders of the 60ies in not signing and endorsing the unity document. Counties, as the author explained in detail, may have numerus reasons and geo-politics analytical approach whether to recognize or not the Somaliland de facto independent state. Re-recognition doesn’t make much sense in terms of the political +sovereign status of the Somaliland. In light of its joining to the int’l arena in economy and others development factors, Somaliland dearly needs the key to unlock itself from the unfair lockdown by the hypocritical world politics. What Somalilanders should proceed their claim in an open arena of global politics NOT seeking the re-recognion from nations that have strings of geo political +economic interests as a prime drive. This approach, as we have been observing in the new govt of Somaliland, will put the nation in the a precarious situations of battle ground which perfectly described by the author. Let the new govt proceed in seeking its right that have been held unfairly by the African Union. At the same time, let the MOU signed with Ethiopia take the next step, without hair splitting flamboyance by certain officials. At the end of the day, all the re-recognition interest rests to have economic dev’t that leads to political recognition. The solutions for this, in my opinion, is within the MOU. Mighty nations assist in taking the take-off, but not the lasting economic development miracle. All the silver lining of development formulae is in the hands of each nations. Particularly of make use of its resources. Meandering here and there never help in bringing miracle. Int’l relations needs moderate out look of all side that never driven by prejudice of being smart. Somaliland new govt MUST abstain from such thinking. It hurts badly to the level which losing all what has been paid in blood for decades.
    To win marathon, one need to lead the whole distance. Finishing a head of all makes madal winner. Competing all the distances but be deprived of the technique or the wisdom of taking the lap at the final round make the brave runner a loser. Somalilanders must be cautious of such situation which exactly similar to their current situation.

  13. This is what has been true for many years people of Somaliland deserves their Sovereignty and to be a member of international community, that’s will help safety and security of Red specially the Gulf of Aden.

  14. Somaliland was briefly an independent state for five days in June 1960, before joining with Somalia to form the Somali Republic. This brief period of independence is often cited as a precedent for its current claim to statehood.• The 1960 Act of Union between Somaliland and Somalia is considered by some to be invalid or improperly enacted, giving Somaliland a legal basis to withdraw from the union. The different Acts of Union signed by Somaliland and Somalia, the referendum results showing discontent in Somaliland, and the retrospective nature of the union’s ratification are cited as reasons for this argument. As such,.Somaliland is not a secessionist state. Why do people who wrote articles about the issue of Somaliland often, ignore this fact..

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