While the recent rains caused damage to infrastructure and in communities, it does more good than bad in agriculture
I know a lot is happening in politics and international trade that has implications for South Africa’s agriculture. But I want to take a moment away from those major global issues and comment on the recent rains, which have benefited agriculture and improved farming conditions.
You see, while I have consistently maintained an optimistic view that the 2024-25 agricultural production season will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture after the El Niño-induced drought in the 2023-24 season, the summer grains and oilseeds in the country’s western regions were starting to be strained a bit because of the scant rains. The rains from mid-February 2025 will help improve crop-growing conditions in such areas.
I am also gathering views from Grain South Africa, among other folks we talk to, who support this optimistic viewpoint. And the broad message we get from farmers is that production conditions should be better.
Notably, farmers planted a decent area of summer grains and oilseeds for the 2024-25 season. For example, the preliminary planting data released by the Crop Estimates Committee last month showed that they have probably planted 4.45 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds, up slightly by 0.3% from the previous season.
In more detail, the data show that South Africa’s 2024-25 maize preliminary plantings were 2.64 million hectares, up by 0.4% yearly (year-on-year).
Sunflower seed preliminary plantings are 552 000 hectares (up 4% year-on-year), with groundnuts at 46 175 hectares (up 12% year-on-year) and dry beans at 45 500 hectares (up year-on-year).
Meanwhile, the soybean preliminary plantings are at 1.12 million hectares (down 2% year-on-year), and sorghum at 39 500 hectares (down 6% year-on-year).
The Crop Estimates Committee will release an update of these data on 27 February, and the first production estimates for the season. We suspect the report will further underscore these better plantings and perhaps provide a robust production estimate for the crops.
The data may not fully account for the improved crop conditions after the recent rains. This means an update from March may be a more accurate representation of the crop conditions, which we view as upbeat for this 2024-25 season.
Some of these plantings probably happen outside the typical optimal window because of some regions’ unfavourable weather conditions at the start of the season. In such areas, there will be a need for better rains through to March, when the crops will pollinate. Notably, the recent rains helped with the early stages of crop growth.
Encouragingly, the La Niña prospects suggest we may receive favourable rains during this period, which will support the crop conditions and the pollination of the crops.
These rains also benefit the livestock industry’s grazing veld. In the current times, where feed prices remain elevated, better grazing conditions provide some relief to commercial farmers and greatly benefit smallholder non-commercial farmers.
Moreover, the horticulture subsector — fruit and vegetables — mainly relies on irrigation, which also benefits from the excellent rains. Better rain ensures that irrigation times are lessened and, most importantly, there are better water levels throughout the year.
Ultimately, while heavy rain is not always desirable because of the damage it could bring to some communities, rain does more good than bad in agriculture.Wandile Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and author of A Country of Two Agricultures.