Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Photo: Sourced
The media was in shock after the televised public humiliation of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. US President Donald Trump and Vice-president JD Vance were pouncing on him like bullies in the school yard.
Trump went as far as to say that he — Zelenskyy — had instigated the war with Russia, while Vance kept on insisting, “Did you even thank us? Did you even thank us?” referring to the military aid the US had been sending Ukraine since the start of the war in February of 2014.
Anyone watching the scene would have found it obscene. And it was. But it was inexplicable too. What was it about? Because it happened in full view of the world, it must have been orchestrated to send a message. But to whom? And what was it about?
Perhaps the first thing we must do to understand geopolitical affairs is to suspend our liberal sentiments. They are out of place in the realpolitikal situation of international relations.
International relations are governed by two factors: national interests and the projection of power, of economic and military strength. The liberal notion that countries, including the US, act in the name of justice or the good of humankind is an illusion designed to distract us from the powerplay between nations.
Consider first the immediate effect of the scene in the Oval Office on European nations. The confrontation took place on Friday, 28 February. On Sunday, European leaders pledged to assist Ukraine in reaching a truce with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, which included sending military aid to Ukraine to secure its borders.
US presidents since Nixon have been telling the Europeans to bear the greater share of the financial burden of their and Nato’s security. In the space of one meeting, Trump did what no US president has succeeded in doing in the past 50 years. The scene in the Oval Office sent a clear message: “The days of free riding are over.” They must start spending on their military budget.
This was not the only message. And the Europeans were not the only ones Trump was addressing.
He seems to have a keen sense of how vulnerable the US is economically and militarily. In 2024, the US manufacturing sector added $2.65 trillion to the economy; China’s added $4.49 trillion.
Its military-industrial complex has also weakened since the late 1960s. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the US would run out of precision missiles within a week if a conflict with China were to start tomorrow. It cannot conduct conflicts simultaneously in Eastern Europe, the Far East and the Middle East.
There is a bipartisan consensus in the US Congress that there is an axis of autocrats on the geopolitical scene that poses a direct threat to Western-American dominance in the global order. In the order of economic and military strength, China takes the lead, then Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Some members of Trump’s new administration seem to believe the US could take them on at the same time. Trump doesn’t appear to think so. If that is the case, then the scene in the Oval Office was Trump’s message to Putin that he wants to end the war and conciliate. He knows that it would be disastrous for the US to keep the conflict going in Eastern Europe if a war with China was imminent.
The US’s primary concern is not Ukraine. It is not the Middle East. It is the situation in the South China Sea where China has been conducting military operations around Taiwan since 2024.
What could the US do if China challenged Taiwan’s autonomy — if, say, China prevented ships from leaving and entering Taipei? The situation would escalate quickly. It would be the Cuban missile crisis in reverse. China would impose a blockade around Taiwan and the US, attempting to break through it with its naval ships, would trigger a third world war. I imagine that China would take the US’s bluff.
Why is Taiwan important to the US? It manufactures 98% of the world’s semiconductors, the devices that go into our computers, cellphones and medical equipment. The US has two companies in Arizona that produce these items. It is not by accident that on 3 March, four days after the incident in the Oval Office, Trump signed a $100 billion deal with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to build plants on American soil.
Trump needs to cut military aid in Eastern Europe. And so he is telling the EU to get behind Ukraine. He wants to reconcile with Russia in case of a war with China.
China has been set on shifting the balance of power in 2027. Its recent actions lead us to believe that it is ready now.
Trump might lack the moral qualities that would make him a deserving member of a human community. But he appears to be a fine strategist with a good sense of the strengths and weaknesses of his country and of its position in the global order.
Rafael Winkler is a professor in the philosophy department at the University of Johannesburg.