South Africa does not have a problem like other Southern African countries. South Africa's maize harvest of 12.72 million tonnes is well above the annual needs of 11.8 million.
On 25 November, the Pretoria office of the US department of agriculture (USDA) published a report on South Africa’s maize market. It highlighted the difficulty caused by the recent mid-summer drought, which led to a 23% decline in maize production to 12,72 million tonnes. South Africa was not alone in this experience; Zimbabwe lost roughly 60% of its maize harvest, while Zambia lost half of its crop. Malawi, Mozambique and others also experienced significant crop losses. This meant the Southern Africa region would require maize imports to meet its annual needs.
The US department report speculated that “South Africa could import approximately 800,000 metric tons of corn in the marketing year (May 2024 – April 2025)”.
This line confused some, with people asking whether South Africa had sufficient maize supplies. This is a fair question, especially if one considers that maize prices, in recent months, have surged, with white maize trading at about R6 300 a tonne and yellow maize at more than R4 000 a tonne. Such price levels would support the view of those worried about maize supplies in South Africa.
The reality is that South Africa does not have a problem like other Southern African countries. South Africa’s maize harvest of 12.72 million tonnes is well above the annual needs of 11.8 million. Moreover, South Africa had large stocks of more than two million tonnes from the last season, further boosting the supplies this year. This ultimately meant that although the supplies were tight, South Africa continued to export maize to the Southern African region to stabilise food supplies.
South Africa’s overall maize exports are estimated by industry stakeholders at 1.9 million tonnes through the April 2025 marketing year (about 1.2 million tonnes is white maize, and 700k tonnes is yellow). More than a million tonnes has been exported, mainly to Southern Africa.
Therefore, if possible maize imports materialise from the US, this would perhaps be for easing supplies for the Southern African region. The news does not necessarily imply a maize shortage in South Africa.
One must also appreciate that the US generally does not produce white maize in any significant volume for export. Therefore, such maize would have been planted on contract for particular buyers. It is possible that such maize could be a few consignments for the coastal regions while South Africa ramps up exports to the broader Southern Africa region.
Also worth noting is that the US produces quite different biotech maize events; thus, there was a need for the government to ensure that their possible cultivars for imports are aligned with South Africa.
Regardless of whether the US maize imports materialise, South Africa will probably remain a net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year, which is likely to be just under two million tonnes.
Any possible imports will be far less, and maize will serve the broader Southern Africa region and the coastal areas of South Africa. For example, coastal regions will continue to import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantages. We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina through Cape Town.
South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports currently stand at 331 000 tonnes.
South Africa’s farmers are continuing to till the land and the weather prospects are encouraging. The La Niña rains are delayed by roughly a month, but the forecasts from various weather organisations promise a recovery.
Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.