/ 20 January 2025

SA avocado supplies should recover soon

Avocados Packaged For Shipment As Colombian Exports Increase
The current shortage of avocados should not be a primary concern for consumers but rather a temporary inconvenience. (Mariana Greif Etchebehere/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The current shortage of avocados should not be a primary concern for consumers but rather a temporary inconvenience. On 16 January, News24 reported that South Africa has tight avocado supplies

While some of you won’t be able to have your “smashed avocado on toast” breakfast for a week or so, there are a few reasons for this slight inconvenience, and it will ease soon.

First, one must appreciate that avocado season in South Africa runs from February through to September. Therefore, we were bound to have lower supplies at this time of the year. 

Second, South Africa exported a large number of avocados in 2024 because of strong global demand, which led to tight domestic supplies. But this is temporary; we could see supplies improving next month and prices moderating.

After all, we now have a diversified avocado industry with production in various South African regions with different yielding periods.

Importantly, we produce a sizable amount of avocados in this country — more than 120,000 tonnes a year. Our production has increased notably over the past few decades because of the expansion in plantings on the back of strong demand locally and globally. 

We generally export about half of the harvest. Our key export markets include the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, Spain and the United Arab Emirates.

Like other agricultural commodities, the South African avocado industry wants to continue widening its export markets to various regions to diversify and support its long-term profitability.

But I must emphasise that this export drive is not at the expense of the domestic market; that remains important and it is unusual to have a tight supply of avocados locally.. 

Many trees still have yet to bear fruit in this country, and the local market will not absorb them. For that, we need export markets. 

Notably, exports are key for farmers to earn revenue and sustain jobs in this industry. Better profitability levels are vital for the long-term growth of the avocado industry, job creation and sustainability of various rural communities. 

By the way, the talk of exports does not suggest that things have been smooth for farmers. We continue to see problems of inefficient ports, poor roads, rising crime and inept municipalities, all of which add costs to business and threaten the long-term growth of the broader agricultural sector.

So, the news of the temporary tight supply of avocados and a possible slight increase in price will not make the industry rich. We should resolve fundamental constraints to agricultural growth as a country. 

Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.

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