The tide is slowly turning on uncritical pro-West reporting on issues such as Russia’s war on Ukraine (above) or Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Photo: Bulent Kilic/AFP
ANALYSIS
The war between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted a Western-dominated world order and prompted an adjustment of power imbalances and strengthening of Africa’s global presence, according to analysts.
“The shift in global world order from a unipolar centre of power to a multipolar world order is seeing Africa increasingly position itself for a change on the international political stage,” Sanisha Packirisamy, an economist at Momentum Investments, told Mail & Guardian.
Packirisamy said the established Western world order is under threat “and we are likely to face a multipolar world order — the rise of emerging powers — going forward”.
Ivan Katchanovski, attached to the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa, in Canada, said that the West regards the Ukraine-Russia war as a “crucial issue” because “it would determine the future of the Western-dominated international order”.
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February last year, with the ongoing war claiming thousands of lives on both sides.
Outside the periphery of the war, the West remains determined to persuade countries — including those in Africa — to oppose Russia’s attack on Ukraine. At the same time, Russia’s efforts to gain support — particularly from Africa — have not gone unnoticed.
Peter Fabricius, an independent journalist and analyst on foreign policy, told the M&G the Russia-Ukraine war had created a greater need for Russia to “reinforce their alliances”.
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is again touring Africa, his second such tour in less than a year, after visiting the continent in July.
Marking the start of his Africa tour, Lavrov briefly visited South Africa on Monday.
On invitation, Lavrov engaged in bilateral discussions with the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, where both reiterated their call for reform in the world order.
Lavrov told the media on Monday: “Our countries strongly advocate for a more fair, inclusive, democratic and polycentric architecture of the world order, based on the respect for the sovereign equality of all states.”
Pandor emphasised the “proactive role” Brics nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — were playing in ensuring it was part of a “redesigned global order”.
“The current global geopolitical tensions clearly signal the need to create institutional mechanisms that will have the stature form and global trust to promote and support global peace and security,” Pandor said, calling on the Brics alliance to fill this role.
Backing the South African government’s call to reform the United Nations Security Council, Lavrov noted: “We firmly support the idea that the security council should represent more developing nations, primarily from Africa and Latin America.”
But Fabricius pointed out Russia’s hypocrisy in that, despite being one of five permanent members of the Security Council, it does not explicitly support permanent seats for Africa on the council.
According to Fabricius, it is, in fact, Western countries — such as the United States, France and Britain — who have advocated that African countries should hold permanent seats.
Russia’s most recent visit follows shortly after the Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans defended its joint maritime exercise, Mosi II, with Russia and China, which is scheduled to take place in KwaZulu-Natal next month. Excluded from the naval exercises are India and Brazil.
Brazil was elected a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council for a two-year term, coming into effect this year. It voted in favour of the United Nations General Assembly adopting a resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions in October.
During the same general assembly session, India and South Africa abstained from casting their vote, while China and Russia voted against the resolution.
However, in mid-April, and similar to India and South Africa, Brazil also abstained from casting its vote on a general assembly vote to suspend Russia from its human rights council for committing atrocities against civilians in Ukraine.
Unlike Brazil’s inconsistent position towards the Russia-Ukraine war, South Africa has remained unchanged in its opinion that the conflict can be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.
However, not all African countries share this sentiment. Twenty-six African countries voted in favour of the UN’s October resolution rejecting Russia’s annexation of the four Ukrainian regions. Nineteen abstained.
(John McCann/M&G)Russia’s recent visit to South Africa reiterates the country’s “neutral” position on the Russia-Ukraine war. South Africa does not share major economic relations with Russia, as as it does with the West, but the relations highlight South Africa’s growing international presence.
Fabricius described Russia’s relationship as a “nostalgic connection” with the ANC that dates back to the liberation struggle pre-1994, which Western countries seem to understand, he added.
David Feldmann, mission spokesperson for the United States embassy in Pretoria, told the M&G that the US would continue to strengthen its ties with South Africa.
“We are concerned about South Africa’s plan to hold joint naval exercises with Russia and the PRC [People’s Republic of China] in February, even as Moscow continues its brutal and unlawful war of aggression against Ukraine.”
Despite these concerns, Feldmann said: “We continue to expand and deepen our relationship with South Africa, working on areas of greatest concern to our citizens: expanding trade, securing a just energy transition and cooperating on global health to save lives.”
Katchanovski believes the West will continue diplomatic efforts to persuade South Africa to take a decisive stand against Russia.
“The US and other Western countries, including former colonial empires, such as the United Kingdom and France, would continue trying to make South Africa change its stance by various means,” which included diplomatic, political and economic pressure, he said.
The proposed US Bill on Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa, is one example. The bill seeks to sanction any African businesses or people doing business with Russia.
South Africa’s defence minister Thandi Modise and Pandor have publicly rejected the proposed bill, arguing that South Africa will not be told who to do business with.
“It is important that all of us accept our ability to hold different opinions. We are on a roll of sovereign nations that are regarded as equal in terms of the United Nations Charter,” Pandor commented during a visit from the US foreign secretary, Antony Blinken, in August.
Fabricius said South Africa enjoys a sense of diplomatic freedom, despite its neutrality in the war, but this leeway might change depending on the direction of the war.
Should Russia decide to use nuclear weapons — which he considers to be unlikely — South Africa’s neutral stance would become increasingly difficult for the West. In the meantime, both Russia and the West continue to court South Africa and the broader continent.
South Africa assumed the rotational leadership of Brics on 1 January, and is set to host the 15th Brics summit later this year.
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