Reg Rumney
So far, labour relations look calmer than they have=20 been in previous years, despite union protest action=20 over the Draft Labour Bill.
Wage increases this year are likely at least to match=20 inflation of 10 to 11 percent and in some cases outpace=20
Until the Draft Labour Bill heightened tensions, labour=20 relations seemed almost serene, although wage=20 negotiations have not yet begun in earnest in the=20 mining and metal sectors, which set the tone for the=20 rest of the industry. The motor industry is set to=20 release the details of an agreement on wages and=20 conditions of service at the end of the month which at=20 the very least should prevent a replay of last year’s=20 crippling motor industry strike.
De Beers and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) =20 are continuing to negotiate on wages, with the NUM=20 demanding 16 percent and De Beers offering six percent,=20 the company says. In the metal industry the National=20 Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) and the=20 Chemical Workers’ Industrial Union (CWIU) had declared=20 deadlock over the Steel and Engineering Federation of=20 South Africa’s (Seifsa) 10 to 11 percent increase=20 offer, according to Seifsa.
Despite rising tensions over the Draft Labour Bill,=20 strike action in the first half of this year has been=20 low compared to previous years.
Andrew Levy & Associates, a labour consultancy, reports=20 95 000 man days have been lost due to industrial action=20 so far this year, compared with 1,2-million days lost=20 last year.
The consultancy’s Andrew Sparks has this year=20 disregarded man days lost due to political protest=20 action, such as marches in support of union demands=20 around the Labour Bill.
The 95 000 figure is much lower than last year, which=20 because of the first democratic election cannot be=20 regarded as typical. But, the figure is also lower than=20 the man days lost in corresponding periods of previous=20
However, Sparks points out wage negotiations have just=20 begun in the mining industry, and the metal industry=20 negotiations are at an early stage. Strikes in these=20 major sectors usually account for many of the man days=20
Sparks says too that the number of strikes seems to be=20 lower than in previous years, and strikes involved=20 fewer workers for less time, which he says is=20 consistent with strikes in small companies. Also, the=20 public sector has been relatively quiet so far this=20
Sparks says settlements have been at the higher end of=20 the predicted range of 10,75 percent to 12,5 percent.=20 This suggests, he says, that employers are more willing=20 to settle to ensure industrial peace and continued=20 production, in the light of improving business.
Labour Research Services head Gordon Young believes=20 wage increases will be higher this year in nominal=20 terms but given inflation of 11 percent or more, it is=20 hard to tell whether workers will end up better off in=20 real terms. They will get higher rises than last year,=20 but may end up with increases below the rate of=20
He is still sticking to his earlier forecast of wage=20 increases this year of between nine and 14 percent this=20
Young says the labour market has been quite favourable=20 for employers this year, with greater volumes produced=20 reducing unit labour costs.
“The labour market is quite favourable for business=20
Sanlam economist Johan Louw says he expects private=20 sector wage increases to be between 10 to 12 percent.
Because of productivity increases, wage rises will not=20 have an inflationary impact this year. But if unions do=20 not moderate their demands, wage rises could fuel=20 inflation next year.
Meanwhile, as the Mail & Guardian went to Press labour=20 and business representatives went into a special=20 “bosberaad” to try to reach some compromise on the=20 draft Labour bill. Nedlac director Jayendra Naidoo=20 dismisses any idea that the labour Bill conflict spells=20 the end of Nedlac, pointing out that negotiations in=20 three other chambers are moving ahead without=20
Naidoo is optimistic some progress will be achieved.=20
“What we have here is a tough set of issues to be=20 negotiated.” Negotiations over principle and detail at=20 the same time are bound to be complicated, he reckons.
Is compromise possible? It is fairly obvious that=20 labour sees advantage in centralised bargaining, among=20 other issues. But why is this the sticking point for=20
SA Chamber of Business labour affairs director explains=20 that, though there other difficulties, compulsory=20 centralised bargaining is the main point of discord.
Existing large South African firms, who are used to=20 centralised bargaining, could probably live with it.=20 Small businesess, however, will have a problem with the=20 compulsory part of the proposal, if Bezuidenhout is=20 interpreting Cosatu’s position correctly, and no=20 exceptions are allowed.
Compulsory centralised bargaining, says Bezuidenhout,=20 effectively means the introduction of minimum wages,=20 which small business does not want and which some argue=20 runs completely counter to job-creation.
Bezuidenhout adds that foreign investors would be=20 deterred from having centralised bargaining imposed on=20 them on entering the country.
Labour consultant Frans Rautenbach is among those who=20 believe the conflict is a sign of a profound and basic=20 disagreement between labour and business, and the=20 beginning of a crack in the alliance between the ANC=20 and the government.
He sees the clash, which ultimately the government will=20 be faced with handling, as part of a worldwide trend as=20 economic pressures force governments to seek labour=20
“Even reasonably moderate governments are clashing with=20
Labour market deregulation is along with privatisation=20 a common theme of the International Monetary Fund in=20 its proposals for structural adjustment. Such free- market positions are unlikely to be greeted with=20 enthusiasm by unionists, but they are very much part of=20 the IMF’s recipe for success.
For instance, the latest IMF World Economic Outlook=20 1992 – 1994, mentions privatisation and labour=20 deregulation as part of the reason for success of=20 countries such as Argentina, Chile, Sri Lanka, Thailand=20 and Mexico, which it identifies as “successfully=20 adjusting developing countries”.