THE new Russian threat is no longer the massive weight of the Red Army but its pitiful weakness, while the enfeeblement of the Russian leadership is no less alarming. There is a sense of governing by mirrors as President Boris Yeltsin reassures the nation from his hospital bed. To be really heartened by the message, the listener has to ignore both its context and its content.
Here is the president of Russia, waiting for a triple or possibly a quadruple bypass operation, only able to work for a short time a day. He has intervened not to announce good news or new policies, but to limit the damage caused by feuding among his subordinates. First Yeltsin puts down Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin by approving the Chechnya peace settlement – negotiated by security chief Alexander Lebed – which the prime minister had failed to endorse.
Then he makes a second statement to slap down Lebed, publicly admonishing him to “stop squabbling with everyone” and get to work. If Bill Clinton, or Jiang Zemin, or even John Major, behaved like this, it would be interpreted as a catas- trophe for the country concerned and very bad news for the rest of the world. From Russia, it is merely more of the same.
Yeltsin has also responded to widespread concern about the run-down of the armed forces. Lebed suggests some troops are ready to mutiny: the defence ministry says it cannot afford to feed or clothe its troops and that the proposed budget for 1997 will not cover basic needs.
Western strategists look on this with mixed feelings. The Russian armed forces need to “downsize” to become more efficient, while their defence industries must be slimmed down and focused on real priorities. If the chance is missed now while Lebed feuds with Defence Minister Igor Rodionov, the whole structure will melt into chaos.
Military planners outside Russia should realise this is a much greater threat than the reconstruction of an efficient Russian force. Last week’s test-firing of a Russian intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile, and a manoeuvre involving cruise missiles (watched by Chernomyrdin) was a reminder that chaos is the real danger for the future.
The Communist Party and its allies in the Duma have proposed a new medical commission to examine the health of all top government figures. But in reality no one seems really anxious for Yeltsin to step down. The same reasons that prompted Russian voters to choose him in the elections still apply: he and his gang are a known quantity. A new leadership contest now could send the country into a terminal spin.