/ 14 February 1997

Budget deficit on track

Expenditure was up in the last financial=20 year, but so was revenue. The government’s=20 target deficit of 5,1% will still be met,=20 reports Lynda Loxton

THE government has revised expenditure in=20 the 1996/97 Budget by R3,4-billion to=20 R176,5-billion and is confident that it=20 will still achieve a deficit of 5,1%,=20 Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on=20 Thursday.

“This represents 31,4% of the expected=20 aggregate gross domestic product [GDP]of=20 R560-billion for the 1996/97 year and is an=20 increase of 15% over the 1995/96=20 expenditure level of R153-billion,” he told=20 Parliament.

“Based on revenue receipts for the first=20 nine months of the year, it is now=20 estimated that revenue during 1996/97 will=20 amount to R147,4-billion, which is an=20 increase of R2,5-billion over the March=20 1996 estimate,” Manuel said.

“The Budget deficit is expected to amount=20 to R28,7-billion, or 5,1% of GDP, as=20 planned.”

He described the Adjustments Appropriations=20 Bill as “the test for plan versus=20 performance on fiscal management over the=20 period of 12 months with the benefit of=20 hindsight”.

The adjustment estimates provide for=20 appropriations amounting to R13,1-billion.=20 This is made up of R205,7-million=20 anticipated at the time the Budget was=20 announced last March; R523,7-million in=20 externally funded expenditure; R535,7- million for function shifts between votes;=20 R2,9-billion for unforeseen and unavoidable=20 expenditure by departments and rollovers of=20 R8,9-billion.

The main Budget and the adjustment=20 estimates provide for appropriations=20 totalling just more than R190-billion, but=20 R4,1-billion of this was counted twice for=20 Reconstruction and Development Programme=20 (RDP) projects.

Finance Department Director General Hannes=20 Smit said departments had saved R484,7- million, which maintained the trend set in=20 previous years to encourage departments to=20 save where possible.

“That is a target set and we have=20 vigorously pursued it,” he said.=20

“If you look at the overall expenditure, I=20 think that we are maintaining the position=20 of last year. I do not think there is a big=20 improvement but I don’t think there is a=20 deterioration either,” Smit said.

Of the increased expenditure, R523,7- million was externally funded and used for=20 closing down agricultural parastatals in=20 the former Transkei and cleaning up oil=20 pollution off the east coast. A further=20 R205,7-million had already been set aside=20 for unblocking the criminal justice system=20 and the establishment of the new South=20 African Revenue Services.

Unforeseen and unavoidable over-expenditure=20 totalled R2,6-billion and included R295- million in standing appropriations,=20 including an unexpected R252,7-million for=20 loan guarantee liabilities for marginal=20 mines.

Government departments’ over-expenditure=20 totalled R2,4-billion, with the biggest=20 slice of R1,4-billion going to the=20 Department of Finance itself for transfers=20 to provinces. The police service overspent=20 R604-million, mainly because of the=20 rationalisation of police services.

The SABC received an unscheduled R177,4- million for services such as the upgrading=20 of African language stations (R50,8- million), provincial programming (R48,7- million), education (R7,1-million),=20 increased local content (R40,4-million),=20 truth commission coverage (R4,8-million),=20 parliamentary coverage (R3,6-million),=20 coverage of all religious faiths (R21,1- million) and public interest programmes=20 (R900 000).

The government also had to cover Post=20 Office losses of R213,3-million.

Smit said some national and provincial=20 departments had performed well while others=20 had not.

“The one big improvement, and I think we=20 will only see the fruit of that in 1997/98,=20 is that we hope to complete by March 31 to=20 have all salaries on the Persel system so=20 that we can look at personnel expenditure=20 at least from actual figures rather than=20 from figures produced by departments,” he=20 said.

The computerised salary system would ensure=20 that state expenditure would know exactly=20 who was on the payroll. It has been widely=20 alleged that the public service payroll has=20 been inflated by a large number of “ghost”=20 employees who do not exist but still draw=20 salaries.

Once again, rollovers and double accounting=20 because of transfers from RDP funds had=20 confused the accounts.

“Luckily, this is the last year that we=20 will deal with RDP accounts,” Smit said.

This was because the last of the funds=20 would be transferred from the Department=20 of Finance to the RDP fund, and then from=20 the RDP fund to the relevant departments=20 through the exchequer.

Smit said that of the R12-billion not spent=20 in 1995/96, only R8,9-billion had been=20 allowed to roll over into 1996/97.

Rollovers have been steadily increasing in=20 recent years in preparation for multi-year=20 budgeting.

Smit said rollovers had been used to assist=20 departments to work over more than one=20 year. The introduction of the multi-year=20 budgeting system would make it much easier=20 to plan. The problem with a one-year system=20 was that it was difficult for departments=20 to plan ahead, Smit said.

In the past, departments had started=20 spending in the middle of February to the=20 end of March merely to use up their=20 budgets. Rollovers had prevented this last- minute spending on things that were not=20 always immediately necessary.

He said the deficit had been calculated=20 without taking rollovers into account but=20 admitted that “we have had quite a=20 substantial saving on expenditure because=20 of the rollovers”.

Finance Director General Maria Ramos said=20 that the shift to multi-year budgeting=20 would lead to a “substantial improvement.=20 It is virtually impossible, particularly on=20 capital expenditure, to budget in year one=20 and spend everything. There is preparation=20 time, project preparation and project=20 implementation.=20

“Most of these projects take two, three,=20 five years to develop and be completed and=20 the notion that you have to budget all that=20 in year one is nonsensical. It also does=20 not allow you to get a close enough=20 correlation between policy and expenditure.=20 Moving towards the multi-year budgeting=20 system will help us do that because it will=20 be supported by a whole range of other=20 instruments.”

The first instalment of multi-year=20 budgeting would be introduced in 1998/99.=20 It would take that long because systems=20 would have to be put in place to shift=20 fully to multi-year budgeting.