Francis Murape
ZIMBABWEAN nationalist leader and co-vice-president Joshua Nkomo rarely appears in public these days because of poor health and old age – a development that is increasing the strain on President Robert Mugabe’s fractious administration.
Mugabe is worried not so much because he loves the man, but because Nkomo’s departure could undermine the political accord in the restive Matabeleland region, and create complications in Mugabe’s own succession debate.
Should Nkomo (80) die soon, someone from Matabeleland will have to succeed him if the 1987 Unity Accord between Nkomo’s PF-Zapu and Mugabe’s Zanu-PF is to remain intact.
But whoever succeeds Nkomo will most likely be the next president when Mugabe (73) and the other co-vice-president, Simon Muzenda (75), retire.
And the possibility of predominantly Shona-speaking Zimbabwe being ruled by a Ndebele-speaker from Matabeleland alarms die-hard Shona tribalists in Zanu-PF.
Several powerful Shona figures have emerged and are eyeing Mugabe’s job. Top among them is Minister of Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Emmerson Mnangagwa.
“The Shona-speaking presidential aspirants are praying that the old man lives longer, at least until the year 2002, when the next presidential elections are due,” said one political analyst.
Mugabe, conscious of the damage that the race for Nkomo’s position might inflict, has encouraged Nkomo to stay on – against family advice. Nkomo is suffering from prostate cancer and rarely goes to the office or exercises any of his functions as vice president.
Mugabe has not appointed Nkomo acting vice-president when he has been out of the country during the past four months. Normally the two vice-presidents alternately run the country when Mugabe is away.
The race to succeed Nkomo, however, is already under way in Matabeleland with early front-runners in the Minister of Local Government, Rural and Urban Development, John Nkomo, and the Minister of Home Affairs, Dumiso Dabengwa.
Within Zanu-PF, John Nkomo is more popular. He is seen as a moderate who stayed on in Mugabe’s government after Joshua Nkomo and others were expelled soon after independence in 1980 when they were accused of plotting to overthrow the government.
It would also appear that Mugabe favours the bespectacled and white-bearded John Nkomo and has kept him in the local government ministry so that he could build his power base in Matabeleland.
Dabengwa, however, is more popular in Matabeleland. Detained for three years by Mugabe’s government on allegations of caching arms of war, Dabengwa is seen as representing the radical element in Matabeleland.
Known as the “Black Russian” because of his training in the former Soviet Union before he became chief of intelligence in Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army (ZPRA) anti-colonial guerrilla force, Dabengwa is an enigma in Zanu-PF circles.
He is feared by the Shona leadership and represents the worst case scenario in their calculations. Even Joshua Nkomo is said to be uneasy with Dabengwa, a dour character who rarely attends public functions except in Bulawayo, the capital of Matabeleland.
The fear stems from the suspicion that Dabengwa might not have forgiven his detention, and that he might radicalise Matabeleland and therefore tear apart the 1987 accord if he fails to get the presidency.
Nkomo apparently favours Simon Khaya Moyo, the diminutive minister of mines, environment and tourism, who has become a key member in Mugabe’s Cabinet, but who is seen as a lightweight in the Matabeleland power play.
If Mugabe could have his way, logic would demand that he appoint Joseph Msika, Joshua Nkomo’s deputy in the old PF-Zanu and current Zanu-PF national chair.
However, Msika’s biggest weakness, as far as Matabeleland is concerned, is that he is Shona and may not be acceptable to the vocal Ndebele-speakers who make up 15% of the population.