Matthew Engel
The current election is one that President Moi ought to lose. Coming from a small tribe, the Kalenjin, he has no natural power base and the three main tribes – the Kikuyu, Luo and Luhya – are all against him.
To win on the first ballot, Moi needs a plurality rather than a majority, plus a support of 25% of voters in at least five of the country’s eight provinces.
He only narrowly achieved this objective in the 1992 elections. The main force opposed to Moi’s party, Kanu, is the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford), which has splintered into three unstable alliances.
The most charismatic opposition leader, Kenneth Matiba, changes his mind on his plans almost daily; a spell in one of Moi’s torture chambers is thought to have had a lasting effect.
Mwai Kibaki, a former vice-president, is tainted with the past; and Raila Odinga is a Luo tribal leader with minimal support elsewhere.
There is growing support for Charity Ngilu of the SDP (Social Development Party), but her level of support is untested.
Safina (Ark), the party fronted by the paleontologist and wildlife expert Richard Leakey, never intended to put up a presidential candidate, but officials denied Safina the opportunity of joining the 21 parties currently registered for the polls on a flimsy excuse, believed to mask Moi’s loathing for Leakey. Safina aims to break away from tribally based politics.