8The Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s (JSE) financial index looks set to defy gravity. Neither currency turmoil in the Far East, fears of overheating American markets, nor fluctuating hopes of an interest rate cut seem to dampen its lively spirit.
Dealers say the major problem is that the financial sector is being driven by speculation, hope and expectations rather than
fundamentals. South Africans are not good savers and easily fall into the debt trap, not the basis of a sound banking system. Furthermore, the sector has had its share of mismanagement and near disasters, such as when the South African Reserve Bank had to bale out Nedbank in the 1980s following the infamous Rubicon speech.
On the other hand, the South African financial services industry is not the worst in the world. Countries from Tanzania to Sweden have had to rescue major financial institutions. Between 1980 and 1992, in the United States, 35 banks and 1 142 savings and loan associations (building societies) collapsed at great cost to the taxpayer.
For the past year the banking sector has been a JSE favourite. In 1997 gold fell out of bed, the rand looked set to hit Italian lira-type levels against the dollar and economic growth slowed dramatically. Hopes of a drop in the interest rate kept investors’ morale up as banks usually do well just before and just after interest rate cuts.
Since January, the financial index has gained more than 20% in value and hit one peak after another – the last count was nine record highs in as many days.
To explain the meteoric rise a closer look is needed at the playing ground and some of the participants. Interest rate cuts have already been factored into the share prices, and year-end and interim results have been good but not spectacular.
Furthermore, there have been many newcomers to the financial services sector from home and abroad. While international banks have not listed their subsidiaries on the JSE, they have brought an increasing sense of competition and urgency to the scene.
Included in the financial services sector are the insurance companies which often form alliances with banks to sell sproducts – in many ways the distribution lines to the consumer are the new battle lines.
Already well-known are the potential mergers between Rand Merchant Bank Holdings (RMBH), Southern Life and First National Bank (FNB). Anglo American has made it clear it wants to sell its FNB stake, and RMBH desperately wants to consolidate and extend its activities in the financial services industry to compete with the big boys like the soon to be demutualised Old Mutual.
The African Life bid for Norwich is turning into a battle of wills after the latter’s shareholders rejected an offer which was 27% above its share price on February 1.
Liberty Life is rumoured to be in negotiations with Standard Bank which may include some kind of closer alliance or cross-over shareholding. Recently formed Orion Holdings, and its relationship with the NBS Boland group, has created an unwieldy monster which analysts say can only create wealth for investors once the shareholdings are simplified.
Capital Alliance is in the process of separating out its banking and insurance divisions. It plans to list its ”Newbank” merchant banking operation soon. Former South African Revenue Service chief executive Piet Liebenberg is heading up The Business Bank which is due to be listed this month and will open its doors on March 1.
Considering the rise in share prices and the possibility of turmoil, it is not surprising that investors face a quandary over what to do with financial stocks. The uncertainty extends to professional analysts.
”Share prices have risen dramatically and we are not recommending that clients buy bank shares at the moment. However, we are not encouraging them to sell either, as who knows what will happen?” a dealer said.