Dawood Dithato
International tributes poured in this week for President Ketumile Masire of Botswana, who resigned this week before his term of office ended.
After 18 years as head of state, Masire ducked out of office as his party began to face the challenge of preparing for its toughest election battle next year.
The tributes cited the country’s stable democracy, sound economy and Masire’s “righteousness and magnanimity” which saw him resign despite the absence of constitutional barriers to remaining in office.
But his departure may have been less voluntary than due to an intensive campaign that ultimately forced him to resign in a hurry and as a bitter man, fed up with lawlessness and the ill-discipline of his lieutenants, who had become ungovernable and affected his ability to rule effectively.
Masire had found himself in an unenviable position – a victim of debilitating intra-party factionalism that has paralysed and torn the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) apart. The camps are led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, General Mompati Merafhe, and the Minister of Works, Transport and Telecommunications and BDP secretary general, Daniel Kwelagobe.
Even more worrying for Masire was the dawning realisation that his ruling BDP may well lose next year’s election to the opposition Botswana National Front.
The ruling party recently contracted the consultancy services of University of Pretoria academic Professor Laurie Schlemmer to revamp its tarnished image.
The editor of the leading weekly newspaper, Mmegi/The Reporter, said recently the months preceding the elections “will be a matter of life and death for the ruling party, confronted with a serious prospect of being so close to losing in three decades”.
The BDP did not win the last elections in 1994 by a wide margin. The results marked considerable change in Botswana’s politics, and the ruling party faces heavy odds during the elections in 1999.
University of Botswana lecturer in constitutional law, Key Dingake, says “there is a real possibility that the 1994 election tremor may produce an earthquake in 1999 and a new government will be born”.
But election results alone do not tell the whole picture, neither do they explain the reasons for the BDP’s dwindling electoral fortunes and its deep-seated troubles.
Research by the University of Botswana Democracy Research Project shows that the youth, workers, urban residents and better-educated citizens mostly support the opposition, while the relatively older, more conservative and rural people tend to support the ruling party.
The youth say the government’s inferior education system limits their employment prospects. They are also unhappy about the government’s refusal to lower the voting age below 21 years.
Masire’s anxieties grew after a credibility crisis following the exposure of rampant corruption and mismanagement in government and parastatal organisations, seemingly sanctioned by government leaders and officials.
Kenneth Good, an associate professor of political science at the University of Botswana, says the state has been swindled of millions, sometimes with the connivance of ministers and senior government officials who award inflated government tenders.