Richard Cornwell and Jakkie Potgieter
Propaganda claims to the contrary, there appears to be a relative lull in the fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as the various forces regroup and resupply, while the deteriorating weather makes the large-scale movement of mechanised troops increasingly difficult.
This provides a breathing space in which the region’s diplomats and politicians are expected to redouble their efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire and the promise of real negotiations. Unless this happens, there is every chance the rival alliances will expand to include even more African states and that serious clashes will occur between the armies of states other than the Congo.
Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia are already arrayed in Kabila’s defence. There are also indications that Sudan has committed forces in the north-east of the Congo in an attempt to assist rebels operating against Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. Chad, the Central African Republic and Gabon have also expressed support for the Congolese president, though no military support is promised.
On the opposite side we have the rebel alliance, backed by Rwanda and Uganda, and including a collection of interests aiming to depose President Laurent Kabila, including elements of the discredited regime of Mobutu Sese Seko.
Watching from the sidelines, Zambia fears the war may extend to Katanga, threatening the stability of the copper belt, while Denis Sassou-Nguesso has every reason to fear a resumption of fighting across the river from his capital, Brazzaville. Rebel forces have set up camps in his territory and are preparing to resume their assault on Kinshasa as soon as Kabila’s principal allies remove the bulk of their defending forces.
To the south, the Angolan conflict is gathering momentum. Condemning Jonas Savimbi as a war criminal may satisfy the moral sensibilities of Southern Africa’s leaders, but will do nothing to blunt the effectiveness of his war machine.
If the Congo conflict has a positive side, it is that it provides Africa’s leaders with a challenge to confront the realities created by immoderate policies, overweening personal ambition and greed. The self- congratulation that followed the fall of Mobutu was premature. The very states that hastened his demise now fight against each other. Mobutu showed but the symptoms of a disease that afflicts so many of Africa’s leaders. Unless this is recognised and acted upon, there is little chance that any lasting solution will be found to the real problems threatening the heart of the African continent.