Howard Barrell
South Africa is on the verge of postponing its biggest-ever joint military and police exercise with other countries in the region, scheduled for next month, because of problems caused by the incursion into Lesotho.
The South African National Defence Force (SANDF)has told other interested government departments it doubts it can afford the exercise, code-named “Blue Crane”, because the Lesotho operation is a serious drain on its already squeezed budget.
The SANDF has also said that its command structures, currently taken up with dealing with Lesotho, may not be able to cope with the exercise.
The resources of a number of other countries due to participate in the exercise, planned under the auspices of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), are more seriously stretched than South Africa’s: Angola’s because of the war on its territory and its troop commitments in the Democratic Republic of Congo; Botswana’s because it has a contingent operating alongside South African forces in Lesotho; Zimbabwe’s because of its economic crisis and intervention in the Congo.
And the defence forces of Lesotho and the Congo, also SADC members, are in no condition to participate in the exercise.
A Ministry of Defence representative confirmed that South Africa was discussing the postponement or cancellation of Blue Crane with individual SADC countries “in an attempt to reach consensus” before a decision was announced.
He would not comment on the reasons for the reconsideration of the exercise.
Ironically, Blue Crane – designed to develop SADC member states’ capacity for peacekeeping – is under threat because of SADC countries’ existing heavy commitments to peacekeeping and peace-enforcing operations in the region.
On Wednesday, the South African defence ministry disclosed that the costs of the Lesotho operation over the nine days from September 22 to September 30 was R8,1-million.
Together with hidden costs, such as wear and tear and combat damage to helicopters and vehicles, this brings the cost of South Africa’s involvement in Lesotho to nearly R1-million a day in the opening days of the operation.
Military observers were suggesting this week that Blue Crane might be held in May next year, rather than be scrapped altogether.
Foreign diplomats based in South Africa confirmed this week that there was now confusion over when the exercise would be held, if at all.
Diplomatic sources said that a number of West European and North American countries – including France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States – had agreed some time ago to donate about R10-million to the costs of the operation.
As the SADC’s largest economy and as the host of the exercise, South Africa was due to bankroll most of the remainder.
“Postponement looks increasingly like the rational option,” said one Western diplomat.
The Department of Foreign Affairs has been among those pressing the SANDF not to scrap Blue Crane altogether or to postpone it beyond May.
Foreign affairs fears damage to South Africa’s reputation among donors and SADC states.
The defence ministry representative said South Africa wanted to take the donor community along with any decision reached by SADC countries.
Blue Crane is designed to develop the capacity of the SADC’s 14 member states to mount joint peacekeeping operations in the region.
It provides for the involvement of about 4 000 military personnel from SADC armies, navies and air forces, plus a civilian policing component, in keeping the peace in an imaginary trouble spot. Most of the personnel and hardware is due to come from South Africa.
Blue Crane is a follow-up to a smaller peacekeeping exercise involving about 1 000 personnel from SADC countries, code-named “Blue Hungwe”, held in Zimbabwe last year.
Blue Crane envisages more than 2 000 army troops in three or four battalion, most with mixed SADC memberships, performing at the SANDF’s battle school at Lohatla in the Northern Cape; air force transports and helicopters practising moving personnel, equipment and supplies around at Lohatla; naval transport craft and warships mounting mock landings and blockades off South Africa’s east coast; and a civilian policing component.
The civilian policing component appears to be the only element that is definitely going ahead as scheduled.
“We will be putting 30 policemen from various SADC countries through a United Nations-approved course as planned – whatever happens to the other components of the exercise,” said Mark Malan of the Institute of Security Studies, which is running the course.