Andy Capostagno Rugby
With The Truman Show about to overrun our cinemas there will be those who look upon the final weekend of log fixtures in the Currie Cup as another example of media manipulation. Griquas play the Falcons, Western Province play Natal and the Blue Bulls play Free State.
In terms of log positions, that equates to first versus sixth, second versus fifth and third versus fourth. Symmetrical, hey? Perhaps too symmetrical? Do I hear the words “conspiracy theory”? Has Supersport signed up Oliver Stone to direct their rugby broadcasts?
With Supersport deciding to broadcast all three matches, one after the other, Naas Botha was one of many who voiced fears that the teams playing second and third would have an unfair advantage, knowing exactly what they had to do.
Proponents of such theories will not have had their fears allayed by the coaches of the relevant unions. Ian McIntosh and Eugene van Wyk were very happy to toe the sponsor’s line at the press conference following the Sharks’ 24-19 win over the Bulls in Durban last Saturday.
Said McIntosh, “You have to understand that the money used to acquire broadcast rights is the same money the unions use to pay their players. Whether we like it or not we are in an industry that is driven by television and there is no point complaining. I’m sure the viewers aren’t complaining, and at the end of the day that’s what counts.”
Van Wyk was equally sanguine about the prospect of his team having to kick off at 7.45pm against the Cheetahs at Loftus. “At least we won’t be playing in the heat of the day and ultimately what happens in the other games doesn’t really matter to us, we know that we have to go out and win. And I think that applies to all the teams.”
The team who are in the best situation play in Kimberley. There have been dark mutterings that Griquas’ coach Andr Markgraaff was involved in cooking the draw this year so that his team got to play the big guns when their Springboks were away on Tri- Nations duty. What nonsense!
Natal threw away their match with Griquas at King’s Park, the Bulls did something similar at Absa Park a week earlier and Free State were at full strength when they were drilled 42-28 in Kimberley. Griquas are at the top of the log because they have been consistently the best provincial team in the country for the last eight months.
Coaches, it goes without saying, tend to spend their time preparing players to play, rather than poring over mathematical conundrums that would puzzle William Smith. They tend to leave it to the press to sort out the ifs, ands and buts, so here we go.
In the 4pm game in Kimberley the Falcons need to win with a bonus point for scoring four tries. That would give them 44 points and propel them to fourth in the log, ahead of Free State and Western Province, both of whom begin the last round with 43 points.
Thanks to their outstanding points for and against differential, Griquas need just one point from the game to ensure a home semi- final. They can get that point either by scoring four tries, by finishing within seven points of the Falcons or, of course, by winning, in which case they would automatically top the log.
In the 5.45pm game at Newlands, Western Province need to beat Natal to ensure a place in the last four. Five points would give them 48 in the log and if they manage to stop the Sharks registering a single point the possibility of a Newlands semi-final opens up.
Conversely, a win for the Sharks would ensure a semi-final at King’s Park as that would give them a minimum of 51 log points, one better than the Bulls can manage. There are other eventualities from this match that involve bonus points and the possibility of a draw, but they depend on the outcome of the last game.
The 7.45pm match at Loftus is the crunch. If Province have lost, but earned a bonus point or two, they will be shouting for the Bulls. If they have won with five log points to nil, they will be shouting for a Free State victory that does not include four tries. If Province and the Falcons have both lost the Bulls will know that a home semi-final is beyond them. Even if Province have lost but gained two bonus points, they cannot go ahead of the Bulls due to an inferior points differential record, in which case the Bulls could get thrashed by the Cheetahs and still make the semis.
Free State will begin the game knowing that they need to equal Province’s final log points total, happy in the knowledge that their points for and against are way superior.
And this is where the story really starts, because if Province and the Falcons have lost and the Cheetahs know what they have to do they can make a choice between playing to lose, thus choosing to play Griquas in Kimberley in the first semi-final, or playing to win, thus choosing to play Natal at King’s Park in the other semi-final.
Given overall pedigree most teams would opt for the former option, rather than the latter, in which case it could all get very messy. But put your money on Griquas vs Free State in Kimberley and Natal vs the Blue Bulls in Durban.